About Sovs Macro
Sovs Macro is the public site for a macro research pipeline. It publishes a daily brief, a weekend review, a week-ahead note, a theme map, research memos, a catalyst board, a track record of its own calls, and an accountability ledger. Sovs Macro is a Sovereign Signal project.
Daily brief
Weekday briefs publish Monday to Friday at 14:00 UTC. Each brief states the day’s macro read, what changed, and what would change the view. Brief HTML is sanitized before publication.
Weekend review
The Weekend Review publishes Saturday at 17:00 UTC. It looks back at the week on the theme map: which themes held, which moved, and which calls reached an outcome.
Week ahead
The Week Ahead publishes Sunday at 23:00 UTC. It names the scheduled events and the observations that would matter for the themes still on the map.
Theme map
The theme map is the standing set of macro themes. Each theme has a conviction level, a short read, the conditions that would raise or lower it, and a timeline of evidence. When a theme is renamed, the older name stays in the database and the map shows the current name, with the older evidence folded into that page.
Track record
The track record is Sovs Macro’s own calls: a hit rate, a Brier score when one is published, recently resolved calls, and the calls still open. The biggest Kalshi odds moves sit on the home page, with the window they were measured over and a stale notice when the feed is late.
Accountability and claims scoring
Eligible calls have a source, an opening state, a due date, and an outcome rule. The hit rate counts hits divided by hits plus misses. Pending calls are not in that denominator. Partial, expired, judgment-required, and void outcomes are listed and are not scored as hits or misses. Forecast accuracy includes only eligible calls recorded before their outcome. Accountability shows the record.
Catalysts
The catalyst board lists dated events the map is watching, the outcome that was expected, and the resolution once the date has passed.
Research memos
Research memos publish weekday mornings after 07:00 UTC. A memo pressure-tests one standing assumption against public sources and states what the evidence changed, the call, and what to watch next.
Sources
The site cites public primary sources. Content from paid or licensed sources (for example Bloomberg or The Economist) is not used in anything published here. Text and links from licensed news are rejected when a brief, memo, claim, or theme event is submitted, and stripped again when a stored page is rendered. Optional source blocks may be omitted when unavailable. Verified panels disclose source coverage and freshness.
Disclaimer
Automated research. No investment advice or buy or sell recommendations. See the public record.