Catalyst board
Upcoming 31
October 15, 2026
U.S. PPI · 12:30 UTC
Expected
Producer prices feed the PCE inflation measure the Fed targets, so the parts that flow into PCE matter more than the headline. This release covers 2026-09, not the release month.
Surprise
A surprise is final demand at or above 0.30% m/m or at or below 0.15% m/m.
Source: U.S. PPI
October 15, 2026
Initial Jobless Claims · 12:30 UTC
Expected
Weekly claims are a high-frequency check on layoffs. One week rarely resets the labor story.
Surprise
hotter: A jump in claims usually lifts long-term bond prices first, unless it is dismissed as noise. / cooler: A drop in claims usually pushes Treasury yields up a little and steadies the growth read.
Source: Initial Jobless Claims
October 15, 2026
Retail Sales · 12:30 UTC
Expected
The core group of retail sales (excluding cars, gas and building materials) shows whether consumers are still spending or getting tired.
Surprise
hotter: A strong retail sales print usually pushes Treasury yields and the dollar up and pushes recession worries further out. / cooler: A weak print usually lifts long-term bond prices first, though a sharp miss can turn into a growth scare.
Source: Retail Sales
October 21, 2026
20-Year Bond Auction (reopening) · 17:00 UTC
Expected
Offering size not yet announced. How the auction is received matters more than the headline yield: bid-to-cover, the indirect share of competitive bids, and the dealer share versus the prior six same-term auctions.
Surprise
Strong demand: Solid demand at the auction usually steadies long-term yields and calms other markets. / Weak demand: Weak demand at the auction usually pushes long-term yields up and can knock stocks if the Treasury is already struggling to place its debt.
Source: 20-Year Bond Auction (reopening)
October 22, 2026
Initial Jobless Claims · 12:30 UTC
Expected
Weekly claims are a high-frequency check on layoffs. One week rarely resets the labor story.
Surprise
hotter: A jump in claims usually lifts long-term bond prices first, unless it is dismissed as noise. / cooler: A drop in claims usually pushes Treasury yields up a little and steadies the growth read.
Source: Initial Jobless Claims
October 22, 2026
5-Year TIPS Auction · 17:00 UTC
Expected
Offering size not yet announced. How the auction is received matters more than the headline yield: bid-to-cover, the indirect share of competitive bids, and the dealer share versus the prior six same-term auctions.
Surprise
Strong demand: Solid demand at the auction usually steadies long-term yields and calms other markets. / Weak demand: Weak demand at the auction usually pushes long-term yields up and can knock stocks if the Treasury is already struggling to place its debt.
Source: 5-Year TIPS Auction
October 23, 2026
University of Michigan Sentiment (final) · 14:00 UTC
Expected
Sentiment and the year-ahead inflation expectation. The inflation number matters more than the headline mood.
Surprise
hotter: A hotter inflation expectation usually pushes Treasury yields up. / cooler: A cooler inflation expectation usually pulls Treasury yields down.
October 26, 2026
2-Year Note Auction · 17:00 UTC
Expected
Offering size not yet announced. How the auction is received matters more than the headline yield: bid-to-cover, the indirect share of competitive bids, and the dealer share versus the prior six same-term auctions.
Surprise
Strong demand: Solid demand at the auction usually steadies long-term yields and calms other markets. / Weak demand: Weak demand at the auction usually pushes long-term yields up and can knock stocks if the Treasury is already struggling to place its debt.
Source: 2-Year Note Auction
October 27, 2026
5-Year Note Auction · 17:00 UTC
Expected
Offering size not yet announced. How the auction is received matters more than the headline yield: bid-to-cover, the indirect share of competitive bids, and the dealer share versus the prior six same-term auctions.
Surprise
Strong demand: Solid demand at the auction usually steadies long-term yields and calms other markets. / Weak demand: Weak demand at the auction usually pushes long-term yields up and can knock stocks if the Treasury is already struggling to place its debt.
Source: 5-Year Note Auction
October 28, 2026
2-Year FRN Auction · 17:00 UTC
Expected
Offering size not yet announced. How the auction is received matters more than the headline yield: bid-to-cover, the indirect share of competitive bids, and the dealer share versus the prior six same-term auctions.
Surprise
Strong demand: Solid demand at the auction usually steadies long-term yields and calms other markets. / Weak demand: Weak demand at the auction usually pushes long-term yields up and can knock stocks if the Treasury is already struggling to place its debt.
Source: 2-Year FRN Auction
October 28, 2026
FOMC Decision and Press Conference · 18:00 UTC
Expected
The statement, the rate projections and Powell's press conference matter more than the rate decision itself.
Surprise
hotter: A hawkish hold (no cuts in sight) usually lifts the dollar, pushes long-term bond prices down and dents stocks. / cooler: A dovish hold or a path to cuts usually lifts long-term bond prices and stocks, unless worries about growth are already loud.
October 29, 2026
Initial Jobless Claims · 12:30 UTC
Expected
Weekly claims are a high-frequency check on layoffs. One week rarely resets the labor story.
Surprise
hotter: A jump in claims usually lifts long-term bond prices first, unless it is dismissed as noise. / cooler: A drop in claims usually pushes Treasury yields up a little and steadies the growth read.
Source: Initial Jobless Claims
October 29, 2026
7-Year Note Auction · 17:00 UTC
Expected
Offering size not yet announced. How the auction is received matters more than the headline yield: bid-to-cover, the indirect share of competitive bids, and the dealer share versus the prior six same-term auctions.
Surprise
Strong demand: Solid demand at the auction usually steadies long-term yields and calms other markets. / Weak demand: Weak demand at the auction usually pushes long-term yields up and can knock stocks if the Treasury is already struggling to place its debt.
Source: 7-Year Note Auction
October 29, 2026
GDP Advance · 12:30 UTC
Expected
Treat this as confirmation rather than a compass: the details and revisions matter more than the headline growth number.
Surprise
hotter: A stronger-than-expected GDP print usually pushes Treasury yields up, more so if inflation is still sticky. / cooler: A weak GDP print usually lifts long-term bond prices first, unless the market reads it as demand genuinely breaking.
Source: GDP Advance
October 29, 2026
Core and Headline PCE · 12:30 UTC
Expected
This is the inflation measure the Fed targets. Core PCE and services prices decide whether the Fed will hike again or pause.
Surprise
hotter: A hot PCE usually pushes short-term Treasury yields and the dollar up and long-term bond prices and stocks down. / cooler: A cool PCE usually pulls short-term Treasury yields and the dollar down and lifts long-term bond prices, gold, bitcoin and stocks.
Source: Core and Headline PCE
October 29, 2026
ECB Decision · 12:15 UTC
Expected
Whether the ECB leans toward protecting growth or fighting inflation, and whether its rate path is pulling away from the Fed's.
Surprise
hotter: A hawkish ECB usually lifts the euro and nudges yields higher across markets. / cooler: A dovish ECB usually lifts long-term bond prices and can push the euro down.
Source: ECB Decision
October 30, 2026
BOJ Decision
Expected
The policy rate, the bond-buying language, and whether the Bank of Japan keeps tightening while so many trades are funded with cheap yen.
Surprise
hotter: A hawkish Bank of Japan usually strengthens the yen and squeezes trades funded with borrowed yen, which can spill into other markets. / cooler: A dovish Bank of Japan keeps yen borrowing cheap and pushes the risk of those trades unwinding further out.
Source: BOJ Decision
October 30, 2026
Employment Cost Index · 12:30 UTC
Expected
Wage growth in the employment cost index is the cleaner read on labor cost pressure.
Surprise
hotter: Faster employment costs usually push short-term Treasury yields and the dollar up. / cooler: Slower employment costs usually pull short-term Treasury yields and the dollar down.
Source: Employment Cost Index
November 2, 2026
ISM Manufacturing · 15:00 UTC
Expected
New orders, prices paid and employment read together: one of the cleanest monthly signals of whether growth is slowing while prices stay high.
Surprise
hotter: Stronger activity with hotter prices paid usually keeps rates higher for longer and pushes long-term bond prices down. / cooler: Softer activity with softer prices paid usually supports the case that inflation is fading, unless the growth worry takes over.
Source: ISM Manufacturing
November 3, 2026
JOLTS · 15:00 UTC
Expected
Job openings say whether hiring demand is cooling or still tight, alongside payrolls rather than instead of them.
Surprise
hotter: More openings usually keep the labor market looking tight and short-term Treasury yields supported. / cooler: Fewer openings usually support the case that hiring demand is cooling.
Source: JOLTS
November 4, 2026
Treasury Refunding · 13:30 UTC
Expected
This matters when Treasury supply, investors' appetite for long-term bonds and worries about the deficit are all in play at once.
Surprise
hotter: More long-term issuance than expected, or weak demand for it, usually pushes long-term yields up. / cooler: A lighter mix of long-term issuance and healthy demand usually steadies long-term yields.
Source: Treasury Refunding
November 4, 2026
ISM Services · 15:00 UTC
Expected
Whether demand and prices in services are firm enough that the Fed will hike again or pause.
Surprise
hotter: Firm services activity and sticky prices paid usually mean the Fed will hike again or pause, and push short-term Treasury yields up. / cooler: Cooling services and softer prices usually support the case that inflation is fading, more so if the job market cools too.
Source: ISM Services
November 5, 2026
Initial Jobless Claims · 13:30 UTC
Expected
Weekly claims are a high-frequency check on layoffs. One week rarely resets the labor story.
Surprise
hotter: A jump in claims usually lifts long-term bond prices first, unless it is dismissed as noise. / cooler: A drop in claims usually pushes Treasury yields up a little and steadies the growth read.
Source: Initial Jobless Claims
November 6, 2026
Employment Situation · 13:30 UTC
Expected
Payrolls, the unemployment rate, wages and revisions together say whether the job market is cooling gently or cracking. This release covers 2026-10, not the release month.
Surprise
hotter: A strong jobs report usually pushes Treasury yields and the dollar up and leaves the Fed to hike again or pause. / cooler: A weak jobs report usually lifts long-term bond prices first, but a very weak one can turn into a growth scare that hits stocks too.
Source: Employment Situation
November 6, 2026
University of Michigan Sentiment (preliminary) · 15:00 UTC
Expected
Sentiment and the year-ahead inflation expectation. The inflation number matters more than the headline mood.
Surprise
hotter: A hotter inflation expectation usually pushes Treasury yields up. / cooler: A cooler inflation expectation usually pulls Treasury yields down.
November 9, 2026
3-Year Note Auction · 18:00 UTC
Expected
Offering size not yet announced. How the auction is received matters more than the headline yield: bid-to-cover, the indirect share of competitive bids, and the dealer share versus the prior six same-term auctions.
Surprise
Strong demand: Solid demand at the auction usually steadies long-term yields and calms other markets. / Weak demand: Weak demand at the auction usually pushes long-term yields up and can knock stocks if the Treasury is already struggling to place its debt.
Source: 3-Year Note Auction
November 10, 2026
U.S. CPI · 13:30 UTC
Expected
The headline and core numbers, plus rent and services prices, say whether inflation is still cooling or has stalled. This release covers 2026-10, not the release month.
Surprise
A surprise is 0.1 point or more away from the Cleveland Fed nowcast. Without a nowcast, headline CPI is hot at or above 0.30% m/m and cool at or below 0.15% m/m.
Source: U.S. CPI
November 10, 2026
10-Year Note Auction · 18:00 UTC
Expected
Offering size not yet announced. How the auction is received matters more than the headline yield: bid-to-cover, the indirect share of competitive bids, and the dealer share versus the prior six same-term auctions.
Surprise
Strong demand: Solid demand at the auction usually steadies long-term yields and calms other markets. / Weak demand: Weak demand at the auction usually pushes long-term yields up and can knock stocks if the Treasury is already struggling to place its debt.
Source: 10-Year Note Auction
November 12, 2026
Initial Jobless Claims · 13:30 UTC
Expected
Weekly claims are a high-frequency check on layoffs. One week rarely resets the labor story.
Surprise
hotter: A jump in claims usually lifts long-term bond prices first, unless it is dismissed as noise. / cooler: A drop in claims usually pushes Treasury yields up a little and steadies the growth read.
Source: Initial Jobless Claims
November 12, 2026
30-Year Bond Auction · 18:00 UTC
Expected
Offering size not yet announced. How the auction is received matters more than the headline yield: bid-to-cover, the indirect share of competitive bids, and the dealer share versus the prior six same-term auctions.
Surprise
Strong demand: Solid demand at the auction usually steadies long-term yields and calms other markets. / Weak demand: Weak demand at the auction usually pushes long-term yields up and can knock stocks if the Treasury is already struggling to place its debt.
Source: 30-Year Bond Auction
November 13, 2026
U.S. PPI · 13:30 UTC
Expected
Producer prices feed the PCE inflation measure the Fed targets, so the parts that flow into PCE matter more than the headline. This release covers 2026-10, not the release month.
Surprise
A surprise is final demand at or above 0.30% m/m or at or below 0.15% m/m.
Source: U.S. PPI
Resolved 49
October 14, 2026
Beige Book · 18:00 UTC
Expectation
Anecdotal evidence on demand, wages, and prices across Fed districts ahead of the next meeting.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: Beige Book
October 14, 2026
U.S. CPI · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
The headline and core numbers, plus rent and services prices, say whether inflation is still cooling or has stalled. This release covers 2026-09, not the release month.
Outcome
headline YoY 4.02%, headline MoM 0.65%, core YoY 2.79%, core MoM 0.33%
Source: U.S. CPI
October 9, 2026
University of Michigan Sentiment (preliminary) · 14:00 UTC
Expectation
Sentiment and the year-ahead inflation expectation. The inflation number matters more than the headline mood.
Outcome
Preliminary release. The final print is 2026-10-23.
October 8, 2026
30-Year Bond Auction (reopening) · 17:00 UTC
Expectation
$22.0 billion offered. How the auction is received matters more than the headline yield: bid-to-cover, the indirect share of competitive bids, and the dealer share versus the prior six same-term auctions.
Outcome
high yield 5.618% (vs prior close 5.67%, -5.2 bp), bid-to-cover 2.54, indirect 72% of competitive, dealers 7% of competitive. Demand read: strong
Source: 30-Year Bond Auction (reopening)
October 8, 2026
Initial Jobless Claims · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
Weekly claims are a high-frequency check on layoffs. One week rarely resets the labor story.
Outcome
initial claims 197,000 (prior 199,000)
Source: Initial Jobless Claims
October 7, 2026
10-Year Note Auction (reopening) · 17:00 UTC
Expectation
$39.0 billion offered. How the auction is received matters more than the headline yield: bid-to-cover, the indirect share of competitive bids, and the dealer share versus the prior six same-term auctions.
Outcome
high yield 5.300% (vs prior close 5.27%, +3.0 bp), bid-to-cover 2.77, indirect 80% of competitive, dealers 3% of competitive. Demand read: strong
Source: 10-Year Note Auction (reopening)
October 7, 2026
FOMC Minutes · 18:00 UTC
Expectation
The minutes show how split the committee was and which risks it is actually debating.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: FOMC Minutes
October 6, 2026
3-Year Note Auction · 17:00 UTC
Expectation
$58.0 billion offered. How the auction is received matters more than the headline yield: bid-to-cover, the indirect share of competitive bids, and the dealer share versus the prior six same-term auctions.
Outcome
high yield 4.932% (vs prior close 4.97%, -3.8 bp), bid-to-cover 2.62, indirect 58% of competitive, dealers 11% of competitive. Demand read: weak
Source: 3-Year Note Auction
October 5, 2026
ISM Services · 14:00 UTC
Expectation
Whether demand and prices in services are firm enough that the Fed will hike again or pause.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: ISM Services
October 2, 2026
Employment Situation · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
Payrolls, the unemployment rate, wages and revisions together say whether the job market is cooling gently or cracking. This release covers 2026-09, not the release month.
Outcome
Payrolls +29,000; unemployment 4.2% (September).
Source: Employment Situation
October 1, 2026
Initial Jobless Claims · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
Weekly claims are a high-frequency check on layoffs. One week rarely resets the labor story.
Outcome
initial claims 197,000 (prior 198,000)
Source: Initial Jobless Claims
October 1, 2026
ISM Manufacturing · 14:00 UTC
Expectation
New orders, prices paid and employment read together: one of the cleanest monthly signals of whether growth is slowing while prices stay high.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: ISM Manufacturing
September 30, 2026
GDP Third Estimate · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
The last revision of the quarter. Markets care when the growth or inflation detail actually moves.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: GDP Third Estimate
September 30, 2026
Core and Headline PCE · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
This is the inflation measure the Fed targets. Core PCE and services prices decide whether the Fed will hike again or pause.
Outcome
headline YoY 3.42%, headline MoM 0.31%, core YoY 3.01%, core MoM 0.25%
Source: Core and Headline PCE
September 29, 2026
JOLTS · 14:00 UTC
Expectation
Job openings say whether hiring demand is cooling or still tight, alongside payrolls rather than instead of them.
Outcome
job openings 7.08 million (prior 7.33 million)
Source: JOLTS
September 18, 2026
BOJ Decision
Expectation
The policy rate, the bond-buying language, and whether the Bank of Japan keeps tightening while so many trades are funded with cheap yen.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: BOJ Decision
September 16, 2026
Retail Sales · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
The core group of retail sales (excluding cars, gas and building materials) shows whether consumers are still spending or getting tired.
Outcome
Retail sales, released September 16: spending rose 1.24% in August from July, a reading about August, not about this month’s prices.
Source: Retail Sales
September 16, 2026
FOMC Decision · 18:00 UTC
Expectation
The statement, the rate projections and Powell's press conference matter more than the rate decision itself.
Outcome
FOMC, September 16: the target rate went up a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%, approved unanimously, the first increase since July 2023.
Source: FOMC Decision
September 11, 2026
U.S. CPI · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
The headline and core numbers, plus rent and services prices, say whether inflation is still cooling or has stalled. This release covers 2026-08, not the release month.
Outcome
U.S. consumer prices, released September 11 for the month of August: 3.71% over the year, with the core measure at 2.76%.
Source: U.S. CPI
September 10, 2026
10Y and 30Y Treasury Auction Window · 17:00 UTC
Expectation
How much investors want to buy long-term Treasuries. A weak auction says more than the headline yield.
Outcome
29-Year 11-Month high yield 5.308%, bid/cover 2.61, accepted $22.0B on $22.0B offered
September 10, 2026
U.S. PPI · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
Producer prices feed the PCE inflation measure the Fed targets, so the parts that flow into PCE matter more than the headline. This release covers 2026-08, not the release month.
Outcome
final demand YoY 5.41%, final demand MoM 0.40%
Source: U.S. PPI
September 10, 2026
ECB Decision · 12:15 UTC
Expectation
Whether the ECB leans toward protecting growth or fighting inflation, and whether its rate path is pulling away from the Fed's.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: ECB Decision
September 9, 2026
10Y and 30Y Treasury Auction Window · 17:00 UTC
Expectation
How much investors want to buy long-term Treasuries. A weak auction says more than the headline yield.
Outcome
9-Year 11-Month high yield 4.834%, bid/cover 2.71, accepted $39.0B on $39.0B offered
September 4, 2026
Employment Situation · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
Payrolls, the unemployment rate, wages and revisions together say whether the job market is cooling gently or cracking. This release covers 2026-08, not the release month.
Outcome
payrolls 162,000, unemployment 4.1%
Source: Employment Situation
September 3, 2026
ISM Services · 14:00 UTC
Expectation
Whether demand and prices in services are staying firm enough to keep the Fed from cutting.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: ISM Services
September 1, 2026
ISM Manufacturing · 14:00 UTC
Expectation
New orders, prices paid and employment read together: one of the cleanest monthly signals of whether growth is slowing while prices stay high.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: ISM Manufacturing
August 26, 2026
Core and Headline PCE · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
This is the Fed's scorecard. Focus on core PCE, services ex-housing, and whether inflation is cooling cleanly enough to reopen the cuts path.
Outcome
July headline PCE was 3.70% year over year and core PCE was 3.34%.
Source: Core and Headline PCE
August 14, 2026
Retail Sales · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
Focus on control-group strength versus consumer fatigue. This is less about the headline and more about whether demand is rolling over.
Outcome
Retail sales (Aug 14): July spending fell 0.58% from June.
Source: Retail Sales
August 13, 2026
10Y and 30Y Treasury Auction Window · 17:00 UTC
Expectation
Auction demand is a direct read on duration appetite. Tail risk matters more than the headline stop.
Outcome
30-year Treasury auction (Aug 13): cleared at 5.216%, orders covered the $25.0bn offering 2.39 times.
August 13, 2026
U.S. PPI · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
Watch the pipeline into PCE, especially the components that matter for the Fed rather than the headline noise alone.
Outcome
July producer prices −0.78% on the month.
Source: U.S. PPI
August 12, 2026
10Y and 30Y Treasury Auction Window · 17:00 UTC
Expectation
Auction demand is a direct read on duration appetite. Tail risk matters more than the headline stop.
Outcome
10-Year high yield 4.683%, bid/cover 2.53, accepted $52.6B on $42.0B offered
August 12, 2026
U.S. CPI · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
Focus on headline and core, plus shelter, services ex-housing, and whether disinflation is broadening or stalling.
Outcome
U.S. CPI (Aug 12): 3.54% year over year, core 2.79%, headline +0.1% on the month.
Source: U.S. CPI
August 7, 2026
Employment Situation · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
The real tells are payrolls, unemployment, wages, revisions, and whether labor is cooling enough to ease the Fed box without a hard growth scare.
Outcome
payrolls -23,000, unemployment 4.1%
Source: Employment Situation
August 5, 2026
Treasury Refunding · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
This matters when supply, duration appetite, and fiscal credibility are all on the tape at once.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: Treasury Refunding
August 5, 2026
ISM Services · 14:00 UTC
Expectation
The key is whether services demand and prices are staying sticky enough to keep the Fed pinned.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: ISM Services
August 3, 2026
ISM Manufacturing · 14:00 UTC
Expectation
Watch new orders, prices paid, and employment together. This is one of the cleanest stagflation or disinflation tells in the monthly tape.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: ISM Manufacturing
July 31, 2026
BOJ Decision
Expectation
Watch the policy rate, bond-buying language, and whether the BOJ tightens further into a fragile carry backdrop.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: BOJ Decision
July 30, 2026
Core and Headline PCE · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
This is the Fed's scorecard. Focus on core PCE, services ex-housing, and whether inflation is cooling cleanly enough to reopen the cuts path.
Outcome
headline YoY 3.67%, headline MoM -0.11%, core YoY 3.29%, core MoM 0.13%
Source: Core and Headline PCE
July 30, 2026
GDP Advance · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
Use this as a confirmation event, not a standalone compass. The internals and revisions matter more than the headline.
Outcome
+0.37%
Source: GDP Advance
July 29, 2026
FOMC Decision · 18:00 UTC
Expectation
The statement, dots, and Powell's reaction function matter more than the rate hold itself.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: FOMC Decision
July 23, 2026
ECB Decision · 12:15 UTC
Expectation
Watch whether the ECB leans growth-protective or inflation-defensive, and whether the euro rate path is diverging from the Fed.
Outcome
No tracked outcome (event below scoring threshold).
Source: ECB Decision
July 16, 2026
Retail Sales · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
Focus on control-group strength versus consumer fatigue. This is less about the headline and more about whether demand is rolling over.
Outcome
June retail sales +0.22%, official actual released July 16.
Source: Retail Sales
July 15, 2026
U.S. PPI · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
Watch the pipeline into PCE, especially the components that matter for the Fed rather than the headline noise alone.
Outcome
June headline PPI −1.26% month over month and 10.11% year over year, official actual released July 15.
Source: U.S. PPI
July 14, 2026
US major-bank Q2 earnings window
Expectation
The newsletter expects a bumper quarter, partly because of brisk trading; compare revenue quality, credit provisions and guidance with that optimistic baseline.
Outcome
The six-bank Q2 window delivered strong revenue and profits: JPMorgan reported $58.0 billion managed revenue and $12.1 billion Markets revenue; Bank of America $31.6 billion revenue and $7.1 billion sales-and-trading revenue; Citi $24.8 billion revenue; Goldman Sachs $20.34 billion revenue; Wells Fargo $20.8 billion revenue; and Morgan Stanley $21.3 billion revenue with record $11.0 billion Institutional Securities revenue.
Source: The World This Week, preview of next week
July 14, 2026
U.S. CPI · 12:30 UTC
Expectation
Focus on headline and core, plus shelter, services ex-housing, and whether disinflation is broadening or stalling.
Outcome
June headline CPI −0.42% month over month and core CPI −0.02% month over month, official actual released July 14.
Source: U.S. CPI
July 13, 2026
HCL Technologies quarterly results
Expectation
No numeric earnings consensus was visible in the screenshot; compare guidance and the first-session reaction against the depressed AI-displacement baseline.
Outcome
HCLTech Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹34,579 crore, up 13.9% year over year; new deal bookings reached $2.4 billion, while FY27 guidance remained 1–4% constant-currency revenue growth and 17.5–18.5% EBIT margin.
Source: The World This Week, preview of next week
July 13, 2026
India June consumer-price index
Expectation
No consensus was visible; compare June CPI with the 3.9% May prior and the recent reacceleration path.
Outcome
India June CPI was 4.38% year over year (provisional), up from 3.9% in May; food inflation was 5.32%.
Source: The World This Week, preview of next week
July 9, 2026
10Y and 30Y Treasury Auction Window · 17:00 UTC
Expectation
Auction demand is a direct read on duration appetite. Tail risk matters more than the headline stop.
Outcome
29-Year 10-Month high yield 5.058%, bid/cover 2.44, accepted $24.3B on $22.0B offered
July 8, 2026
10Y and 30Y Treasury Auction Window · 17:00 UTC
Expectation
Auction demand is a direct read on duration appetite. Tail risk matters more than the headline stop.
Outcome
9-Year 10-Month high yield 4.580%, bid/cover 2.59, accepted $43.1B on $39.0B offered