Brief archive

September consumer prices rose 0.6%, led by a 9.1% gasoline jump, putting an October Fed rate increase back in play before Thursday's producer price report.

Brent eased to about $106 as the US bond market reopens after the holiday, with Wednesday's inflation report still the next big test.

Brent jumped 2.3% to about $107 with US bond markets shut for Columbus Day, so Wednesday's inflation report now has to absorb a fresh oil push.

Ethereum fell 6.63% and Semiconductors fell 4.46% in the week to October 9, which leaves crypto and chip stocks testing whether the crowded AI trade is unwinding.

Long-term Treasury yields eased with the 30-year at 5.60% and oil off its spike, so next Wednesday's inflation report is the test for bonds.

Brent jumped to about $105 a barrel this morning, so today's $22 billion 30-year Treasury bond sale at 17:00 UTC tests whether buyers still want long-term debt.

Brent rose back above $100 this morning and the dollar firmed, so today's $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction at 17:00 UTC is the next test for yields.

The euro fell to $1.116, a 17-month low, on French debt worries, and Wednesday's 10-year Treasury auction is the next test for long-term yields.

Thursday's 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions are the main test after the 30-year yield rose 14bp to 5.63%: weak demand would push long-term yields higher.

Semiconductors rose 4.18% this week even as 30-year Treasury yields climbed to a one-year high, which leaves chip stocks exposed if rates keep rising.

September payrolls rose only 29,000 and unemployment hit 4.2%, so traders are cutting year-end Fed hike bets after the soft jobs print.

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.64%, a one-year high, and Friday’s jobs report is the next test.

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, a one-year high, and Core PCE day plus Thursday ISM are the next tests.

EUR/USD closed at 1.13, a one-year low, with the dollar up 0.96% on the week, and Wednesday’s Core PCE is the week’s main test.

Junk-bond spreads widened to 2.93% as gold fell with the rising dollar, and Wednesday’s PCE report is still the week’s main test.

Wednesday's PCE inflation report is the main test ahead: a hot reading would push Treasury yields past 5.18% and put more pressure on stocks.

The 10-year yield rose to 5.18% while speculators piled into bets against 2-year Treasuries, so Wednesday’s PCE report is the next test.

The Fed's first rate increase since 2023 landed as priced, and stocks and bonds firmed rather than fell, with the 2-year to 10-year gap at 0.27%, its tightest close in a year.

Short-term Treasury yields made a one-year high ahead of today's Fed decision, and the move is about the next few meetings rather than long-run inflation.

Long-term US borrowing costs cleared 5% for the first time since 2007, and chip shares fell 5.9% after a leading AI lab founder called for slower development.

Brent at $109.13 and August inflation at 3.71% pushed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate rise on Wednesday to better than four in five, with short-term Treasury yields at…

Wednesday brings the Fed decision and retail sales within hours of each other, and the baseline is a hold with projections that keep a hike in play, which would hold short-term…

WTI Crude rose 8.44% on the week to $100.05 a barrel after a confirmed Gulf supply disruption, and short-term Treasury yields followed it to a one-year high.

Rate futures now put better than 73% odds on a Fed increase next Wednesday, driven by Brent's 8.78% weekly jump to $104.30 and two-year Treasury yields at a one-year high.

Brent at $104.70 after a 9.83% week has put inflation back at the center, and the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.80% on September 8, the highest close in a year.