Brief archive

Brent crossed $100 with shipping data finally behind it: about six vessels transited Hormuz on August 30 against a normal 85.

The yen's fastest rally in months forced traders to buy back bets funded with borrowed yen just as positioning against it hit a fresh extreme.

Oil's 8% week and the yen's jump to a six-month high against the dollar are the two real changes, and neither has shown up yet in stocks or in what lenders charge riskier…

Friday's CPI is the week's main test, and the baseline is inflation that stays sticky rather than cooling, which would leave the FOMC holding rates steady on September 16.

Energy was the week's cross-asset mover: WTI ran +8.02% to $91.48 and Brent +7.80%, while 10-year inflation compensation lifted only 4bp to 2.35%.

August payrolls of 162,000 and steady 4.1% unemployment leave the Fed on hold, with no-cut-in-2026 odds up to 92.8%.

The yen strengthened sharply even as US short- and long-term yields stayed elevated, separating Japanese currency relief from US rate pressure.

Crude reversed hard, WTI +10.38% on the week to $89.53, Brent +8.36% to $94.22, while gold fell 5.03% and the 10-year closed at 4.75%, its highest in a year, with the 2-year…

Gold, silver and miners fell 4-5.5% on the week as the dollar rose to 99.57 and the 10-year reached 4.75%, its highest since January 2025, with short-dated rate markets now…

The 10-year yield pushed back near 4.75%, its highest since January 2025, and a firmer dollar broke August's metals trade, gold fell 5.45% on the week, silver 4.49%, miners 6.50%.

Friday's Employment Situation is the week's decisive catalyst, with ISM Manufacturing Tuesday and ISM Services Thursday framing it.

The week's biggest change was the reversal in real assets: gold -4.59%, silver -4.44% and miners -4.16% while the dollar index gained 0.85%.

Brent’s 6.16% weekly fall further reduced the immediate supply-shock threat, but firm core inflation and a stronger dollar kept borrowing pressure intact.

Hard assets rose this week without the usual help from a falling dollar, gold miners +7.31%, bitcoin +12%, while the 30-year yield slipped back to 5.17% and chip stocks led for…

Core PCE firmed to 3.34% in July even as Brent fell 5.19% on the week to $86.57, which pulls the fuel excuse out of the inflation story and leaves the argument on services prices.

Brent lost 3.92% on the week to $87.74 despite Washington detailing sanctions aimed at China's purchases of Iranian crude, the market read a money campaign as less disruptive…

A two-way US–Canada tariff war opened while money moved into inflation protection: gold miners gained 13.21% on the week and semiconductors lost 8.36%, with bitcoin up 23.7%.

Core PCE on Wednesday tests gold's 5.22% weekly gain and bitcoin's 23.4% run: a hotter print would lift the dollar and reprice rates.

Crypto was the week's biggest cross-asset move: ether rose 28.70% and bitcoin 22.70%, while gold added 5.22% and semiconductors fell 5.61%.

Bitcoin jumped 7.97% in 24 hours to $77,337 and 22.8% on the week as the dollar index fell 1.14%, with the Fed's preferred inflation reading due August 26.

Bitcoin rose 10.3% in a day to $71,655 and gold miners 10.0% on the week, both riding a dollar down 1.14% to 98.82.

Semiconductors fell 5% in a session, but survey and futures data show the crowded long had already emptied out, the crowding score dropped to 53% from 82%.

The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.29%, its highest since 2007, while refining margins hit records; July FOMC minutes land Wednesday and core PCE on August 26.

Oil ended the week 6.51% higher at $89 while the VIX fell to a year-low 15.02, crude is pricing a supply problem nothing else is charging for.

Core and Headline PCE on August 26 is the only decision-grade catalyst ahead, and it lands with core PCE still at 3.29% year over year.