Brief archive

September consumer prices rose 0.6%, led by a 9.1% gasoline jump, putting an October Fed rate increase back in play before Thursday's producer price report.

Brent eased to about $106 as the US bond market reopens after the holiday, with Wednesday's inflation report still the next big test.

Brent jumped 2.3% to about $107 with US bond markets shut for Columbus Day, so Wednesday's inflation report now has to absorb a fresh oil push.

Long-term Treasury yields eased with the 30-year at 5.60% and oil off its spike, so next Wednesday's inflation report is the test for bonds.

Brent jumped to about $105 a barrel this morning, so today's $22 billion 30-year Treasury bond sale at 17:00 UTC tests whether buyers still want long-term debt.

Brent rose back above $100 this morning and the dollar firmed, so today's $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction at 17:00 UTC is the next test for yields.

The euro fell to $1.116, a 17-month low, on French debt worries, and Wednesday's 10-year Treasury auction is the next test for long-term yields.

September payrolls rose only 29,000 and unemployment hit 4.2%, so traders are cutting year-end Fed hike bets after the soft jobs print.

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.64%, a one-year high, and Friday’s jobs report is the next test.

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, a one-year high, and Core PCE day plus Thursday ISM are the next tests.

EUR/USD closed at 1.13, a one-year low, with the dollar up 0.96% on the week, and Wednesday’s Core PCE is the week’s main test.

Junk-bond spreads widened to 2.93% as gold fell with the rising dollar, and Wednesday’s PCE report is still the week’s main test.

The 10-year yield rose to 5.18% while speculators piled into bets against 2-year Treasuries, so Wednesday’s PCE report is the next test.

The Fed's first rate increase since 2023 landed as priced, and stocks and bonds firmed rather than fell, with the 2-year to 10-year gap at 0.27%, its tightest close in a year.

Short-term Treasury yields made a one-year high ahead of today's Fed decision, and the move is about the next few meetings rather than long-run inflation.

Long-term US borrowing costs cleared 5% for the first time since 2007, and chip shares fell 5.9% after a leading AI lab founder called for slower development.

Brent at $109.13 and August inflation at 3.71% pushed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate rise on Wednesday to better than four in five, with short-term Treasury yields at…

Rate futures now put better than 73% odds on a Fed increase next Wednesday, driven by Brent's 8.78% weekly jump to $104.30 and two-year Treasury yields at a one-year high.

Brent at $104.70 after a 9.83% week has put inflation back at the center, and the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.80% on September 8, the highest close in a year.

Brent crossed $100 with shipping data finally behind it: about six vessels transited Hormuz on August 30 against a normal 85.

The yen's fastest rally in months forced traders to buy back bets funded with borrowed yen just as positioning against it hit a fresh extreme.

Oil's 8% week and the yen's jump to a six-month high against the dollar are the two real changes, and neither has shown up yet in stocks or in what lenders charge riskier…

August payrolls of 162,000 and steady 4.1% unemployment leave the Fed on hold, with no-cut-in-2026 odds up to 92.8%.

The yen strengthened sharply even as US short- and long-term yields stayed elevated, separating Japanese currency relief from US rate pressure.

Crude reversed hard, WTI +10.38% on the week to $89.53, Brent +8.36% to $94.22, while gold fell 5.03% and the 10-year closed at 4.75%, its highest in a year, with the 2-year…