Brief archive

Thursday's 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions are the main test after the 30-year yield rose 14bp to 5.63%: weak demand would push long-term yields higher.

Wednesday's PCE inflation report is the main test ahead: a hot reading would push Treasury yields past 5.18% and put more pressure on stocks.

Wednesday brings the Fed decision and retail sales within hours of each other, and the baseline is a hold with projections that keep a hike in play, which would hold short-term…

Friday's CPI is the week's main test, and the baseline is inflation that stays sticky rather than cooling, which would leave the FOMC holding rates steady on September 16.

Friday's Employment Situation is the week's decisive catalyst, with ISM Manufacturing Tuesday and ISM Services Thursday framing it.

Core PCE on Wednesday tests gold's 5.22% weekly gain and bitcoin's 23.4% run: a hotter print would lift the dollar and reprice rates.

Core and Headline PCE on August 26 is the only decision-grade catalyst ahead, and it lands with core PCE still at 3.29% year over year.

Wednesday's July CPI is the week's hinge, with the 10Y and 30Y auction window landing the same session.

Friday's July employment report is the week's main catalyst, with Wednesday's Treasury refunding and ISM Services setting the tone first.