China / Capital Controls / Tech Security

Tracks how Chinese growth policy, capital controls, and technology restrictions affect global demand and market access.

October 10 update: held. The offshore yuan strengthened to 6.69 per dollar on October 9, its strongest close in the 22 sessions on record, and Chinese large caps (the China fund) rose 2.18% on the week, reversing the prior window's -1.88%. Next check: the yuan giving back that gain is the flip condition; a further yuan gain with equities firm would argue the move is no longer only coming through global prices. September 12 update: the decline arrived through global prices again rather than through policy. China equities fell 1.88% while the offshore yuan barely moved, so for a second consecutive window the repricing sits in global risk pricing rather than in licensing, export controls, or capital-flow news, and no domestic policy step landed in either direction. Wallets hold $1.18 million across 18 accounts against a Taiwan invasion this year in a market scoring 29 on observable data, which is calm sentiment rather than proof. Next check: a licensing or export-control action that shows up in disclosed shipments and procurement, or USD/CNH through 6.60, is still what moves this off hold. September 5 update: the block rose and none of it was domestic. China equities gained 0.62% and emerging markets 2.10% while USD/CNH fell only 0.14% to 6.71 into a 0.54% dollar decline, so the move is a dollar effect rather than a repricing of policy or capital-flow risk, and no licensing action, export-control step, or stimulus conversion appeared in the window. Next check: USD/CNH through 6.60, or a fresh licensing or export-control action turning into disclosed shipment and procurement disruption, is what moves this off hold. August 22 update: China outperformed while the tariff pressure landed elsewhere. China equities rose 2.02%, the strongest major block of the week against Europe +0.38% and emerging markets -0.31%, with USD/CNH flat at 6.72, a third consecutive window in which the repricing sits in equity risk premium rather than the currency, and this week it sat on the upside. The structural offset kept building: roughly $60 billion of Chinese factory construction across the global south last year progressively routes output around bilateral tariff lines, which is the same mechanism the transshipment accusations were built to catch. Next check: USD/CNH breaking meaningfully weaker, or licensing delays turning into disclosed shipment and procurement disruption. August 15 update: the repricing sat in equity risk premium, not the currency. China equities fell 3.70% against emerging markets +2.15% while USD/CNH was unchanged at 6.74 (-0.01%). The pressure surface widened on three fronts: US accusations of transshipment through 40-plus countries costing up to $26 billion a year in tariff revenue, AI-assisted customs screening in development, and Japan moving to develop domestic rare-earth deposits, which turns the critical-minerals lane from symbolic controls into capital response. Smart-money convergence of $1.07M across 20 wallets on No to a Taiwan invasion by end-2026 at 0.9615 carries an observable-data score of 29 and 20% narrative-manipulation risk, so it stays a low-resolution war-tail read and nothing more. Next check: USD/CNH breaking meaningfully weaker, or licensing delays turning into disclosed shipment and procurement disruption, either upgrades this from repricing to stress. August 12 update: the evidence rotated from tech security to domestic demand. Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 from 50.3, the first contraction in five months, with construction slumping and a Politburo pledge to hasten fiscal stimulus; China was the only negative equity region in the week to August 8 at -0.63%. On the strategic side the coordinated allied tariff wall was confirmed abandoned in practice, leaving US pressure unilateral while Europe hardens separately, and a US agency began reviewing how Chinese AI firms acquire and access Nvidia chips overseas as DeepSeek raised prices. Raise only if the stimulus pledge converts into announced size while PMI stays below 50, or if the overseas-access review produces license denials or shipment disclosures naming specific firms; smart-money Taiwan-invasion odds near 0.96 carry an observable-data score of 29 and remain sentiment, not evidence. Treat this as yen/JGB support potential, not a confirmed flow. Promote only if pension allocation, fund-flow, JGB auction, or FX evidence shows real domestic buying.