Credit / Private Markets
Tracks stress and liquidity in private credit, leveraged finance, and other opaque funding markets.
October 10 update: held after last week's raise. The junk-bond spread rose 5bp on the week to 3.15%, a mild move after the prior week's jump, and the map's HY-above-3.00%-on-October-8 check settled HIT (closed 3.15). The investment-grade gap went the other way, narrowing 4bp in five sessions to 0.82% on October 8 (bigger than all but 6 of the last 120 moves), so the stress is concentrated in lower-quality credit rather than broad. Next check: whether the junk-bond spread keeps widening through next week's big-bank earnings; a close back below 3.00% is the flip condition. October 7 update: the weekly reconciliation confirms the raise already merged daily, the junk-bond yield gap widened 31bp to 3.24% across September 27–October 3, and the map's own HY-above-2.95%-on-October-3 check settled HIT (closed 3.10 on October 2). Into the new week spreads eased from the peak without healing: HY OAS closed 3.10% on October 5, still up 17bp in five sessions (bigger than all but 5 of the last 120), and IG OAS 0.85%, up 4bp. Financial conditions tightened modestly, with the Chicago index up 0.06 to -0.49 in five sessions, bigger than all but 5 of the last 49 such moves, even as equities printed one-year highs, public credit and public equity are still disagreeing. Next check: HY OAS holds above 3.00% through October 8 (open); a close back below 3.00% is the weekly flip condition that lowers the raise, while a renewed climb toward 3.24% with special-servicing data rising again confirms the private channel. October 2 update: raised further as the yield shock kept widening credit spreads into early October. HY OAS printed successive six-month highs at 3.08% on September 29, 3.12% on September 30, and 3.24% on October 1, with five-session rises of 40bp then 39bp then 44bp, each the largest in the stored 120, while IG OAS also marked six-month highs at 0.84%–0.86%. The map's own HY-above-2.90%-through-September-30 check settled HIT (closed 3.12). Soft payrolls cut near-term hike odds without healing the spread leg, so public credit is still pricing stress rather than a one-day rates overshoot. Next check: HY OAS holds above 3.00% through October 8; a snap back under 2.80% with equities firm would lower the raise, while another climb alongside commercial-mortgage special servicing would confirm the private-markets channel. September 30 update: raised as the yield shock moved from rates into credit spreads and commercial-mortgage distress. HY OAS jumped from the prior quieter window to 2.93% mid-week and then 3.02% on September 28, the highest close in about six months (125 sessions) and up 36bp in five sessions, the biggest five-session move in the stored 120, while IG OAS also printed a six-month-high 0.83%. Separately, commercial mortgage loans handed to special servicers rose to 11.42% in August, the highest since February 2013, with office still the leading channel and effective fed funds at a nine-month-high 3.88%. The index-easier read from earlier windows is therefore overwritten by a clear spread widening into Core PCE day rather than a heal. Next check: whether HY OAS holds above 2.90% through September 30 and into early October; a fast snap back under 2.70% with special servicing rolling over would lower the raise, while another monthly climb in special servicing with office leading confirms the private-markets channel. August 29 update: public credit financed another week without complaint and no gate, cap, or valuation reset appeared. High-yield OAS tightened 7bp to 263, investment grade 2bp to 79, and the Chicago financial conditions index was unchanged at -0.57, while the balance sheet shrank 0.22% to $6.73 trillion with the reverse repo facility drained and SOFR still printed 3.64% against effective fed funds at 3.63%, runoff now draws on bank reserves with no funding stress visible in the price of money. Private-credit exit stress stayed quiet at the index level for a third straight window with the single-name evidence unchanged. Next check: a sustained SOFR-to-fed-funds gap, or high yield widening while equities are flat, as the first genuine plumbing signal. August 12 update: public credit financed the whole window without complaint while damage kept resolving inside individual capital structures. High-yield OAS tightened 3bp to 284 and then 14bp to 271, IG reached 78, and the Chicago financial conditions index sat at -0.55 to -0.53 with no new gates, redemption caps, or valuation resets. Against that, creditors took control of a second Strategic Value Partners German holding, wood-panel maker Pfleiderer, with energy costs and interest rates named as the two shocks; direct lenders were reported writing no-growth, no-repayment user-acquisition loans to app developers; Blue Owl slowed in the second quarter. The two readings are consistent rather than contradictory, since rate and energy damage shows up in single names long before index spreads. Promotion needs index-level widening alongside a second sponsor handing over keys, and AI-linked deals breaking below issue are now the most plausible widening trigger. July 4 update: Credit stayed an active watch, not a systemic call.75 and IG OAS at 0.75 on July 2. Keep watching fund exits, collateral marks, BDCs, insurer CDS, alternative-manager equities, and public spreads.
What would move it
▲ Raise
- More redemption caps, stale marks, valuation disputes, public BDC weakness, insurer CDS widening, or private-credit fund outflows.
- Wider public high-yield or leveraged-loan spreads that align with private-market stress.
- Bank disclosures show concentrated private-credit exposure, weak collateral marks, or rising non-accruals.
▼ Lower
- Public credit stays calm, fund gates stay isolated, refinancing windows remain open, and bank disclosures show limited exposure.
Live triggers
- Next check: Whether the extra yield on junk bonds keeps widening through next week's big-bank earnings.not_met
Conviction over time
Event timeline
- measured October 13, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-13): the highest close in about nine months (211 sessions).
- measured October 12, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-09): the highest close in about nine months (210 sessions).
- measured October 11, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-08): the highest close in about nine months (209 sessions).
- measured October 9, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-08): the highest close in about nine months (209 sessions).
- hold October 9, 2026
Evidence: The extra yield on safer company bonds, IG Spread (OAS, the extra yield investors demand to lend to sturdier companies), is 0.82%, down 4bp (0.04 percentage points) in five sessions, bigger than all but 6 of the last 120 five-session moves, even as the junk-bond gap widened to 3.15%.
- measured October 8, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-08): the highest close in about nine months (209 sessions).
- measured October 7, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-07): the highest close in about nine months (208 sessions).
- measured October 6, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-06): the highest close in about nine months (207 sessions).
- measured October 6, 2026
S&P 500 (SPY) $779.09 (2026-10-06): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 5, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-05): the highest close in about nine months (206 sessions).
- measured October 4, 2026
HY Spread (OAS) 3.24% (2026-10-01): the highest close in about six months (133 sessions).
- measured October 4, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-02): the highest close in about nine months (205 sessions).
- measured October 2, 2026
HY Spread (OAS) 3.24% (2026-10-01): the highest close in about six months (133 sessions).
- measured October 2, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-01): the highest close in about nine months (204 sessions).
- hold October 2, 2026
Evidence: HY Spread (OAS) closed at 3.12% on 2026-09-30, the highest close in about six months (129 sessions).
- measured October 1, 2026
HY Spread (OAS) 3.12% (2026-09-30): the highest close in about six months (129 sessions).
- measured October 1, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-01): the highest close in about nine months (204 sessions).
- raise October 1, 2026
Evidence: HY Spread (OAS) closed at 3.08% on 2026-09-29, the highest close in about six months (126 sessions), up 40bp in five sessions.
- measured September 30, 2026
HY Spread (OAS) 3.08% (2026-09-29): the highest close in about six months (126 sessions).
- measured September 30, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-09-30): the highest close in about nine months (203 sessions).
- hold September 30, 2026
Evidence: HY Spread (OAS) closed at 3.02% on 2026-09-28, the highest close in about six months (125 sessions), up 36bp in five sessions.
- measured September 29, 2026
HY Spread (OAS) 2.93% (2026-09-25): the highest close in about six months (120 sessions).
- measured September 29, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-09-28): the highest close in about nine months (201 sessions).
- hold September 29, 2026
Evidence: HY Spread (OAS, the extra yield investors demand to lend to riskier companies) closed at 2.93% on 2026-09-25, the highest close in about six months (120 sessions), still sitting on the weekend’s jump rather than reversing.
- measured September 28, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-09-25): the highest close in about nine months (200 sessions).
- hold September 28, 2026
Evidence: The extra yield on junk bonds (HY OAS) rose 25 basis points on the week to 2.93%, while Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-09-25) is the highest close in about nine months (200 sessions).
- measured September 27, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-09-24): the highest close in about nine months (199 sessions).
- measured September 26, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-09-24): the highest close in about nine months (199 sessions).
- raise September 26, 2026
Evidence: Commercial mortgage loans handed to special servicers rose to 11.42% in August, the highest since February 2013, while Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-09-24): the highest close in about nine months (199 sessions).
- hold July 16, 2026
Evidence: Major banks delivered record trading revenue, but that does not answer refinancing or private-fund redemption risk. HY and IG spreads widened only to 272bp and 79bp, leaving the broader-stress trigger incomplete.
- hold July 15, 2026
Evidence: Trading activity supported major-bank revenue and public spreads remain contained at 272bp for high yield and 79bp for investment grade, but commercial-property maturities and company-level debt stress remain large.
- hold July 13, 2026
Evidence: BCRED’s reported 10% redemption demand versus a 5% cap and the roughly $875 billion commercial-property maturity wall deepen the liquidity watch. Public confirmation is absent: high-yield and investment-grade extra yield over Treasuries remains calm at 269bp and 77bp.
- raise July 9, 2026
Raise watch: BofA/HSBC diverge on riskier loans and CRE research still shows elevated CMBS delinquencies; public high-yield/IG extra-yield data remain calm.
- raise July 7, 2026
Raise watch: The Brink shows lenders preparing earlier around aggressive restructuring tactics, while public credit remains calm.
- hold July 5, 2026
Private-credit redemption gates at Ares, Apollo, Blue Owl (research loop). 10Y T-note shorts at 793,401 (+93,766 WoW), extreme consensus rates bet.
- raise July 3, 2026
Raise the watch. Blue Owl withdrawal requests and AI private-debt financing make private credit more decision-relevant.
Related claims
| Opened | Claim | Status |
|---|---|---|
| October 14, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-10-14 printed hot versus the Cleveland Fed nowcast; the map said S&P 500 (SPY) down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| October 6, 2026 | 3-Year Note Auction 2026-10-06 printed hot versus the prior same-term auctions; the map said S&P 500 (SPY) down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | incorrect |
| October 2, 2026 | HY Spread (OAS) closes above 3.00% on 2026-10-08 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| October 1, 2026 | HY Spread (OAS) closes above 2.95% on 2026-10-03 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 28, 2026 | HY Spread (OAS) closes above 2.90% on 2026-09-30 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| August 12, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-08-12 printed cool; the map said S&P 500 (SPY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| July 11, 2026 | Raise systemic conviction only with wider public spreads, weaker loan prices or BDCs, insurer stress, bank disclosures or broader fund restrictions. Calm public credit invalidates escalation. | qualitative review |
| July 4, 2026 | Private-credit exit-stress trigger fired; public-market confirmation did not. Flip to decision-changing only if HY/loan spreads, BDCs, alternative-asset-manager equities, insurer CDS, bank disclosures, or fund flows confirm. | qualitative review |