Crypto / BTC

Tracks Bitcoin and crypto as liquidity, policy, and market-structure signals within the wider macro regime.

October 10 update: lowered on the week. Ether fell 6.63% and bitcoin 2.25% in the week to October 9, extending the October 7 failure to rally with equities at one-year highs. The latest daily briefs also show crypto pressure spreading into the credit, European sovereign, European industrial and housing rows rather than staying contained. Next check: bitcoin holds above $80,000 through October 14 (open); a close below $80,000 is the flip condition that confirms weakness, while a reclaim led by inflows with the dollar fading would reverse the lower. October 7 update: lowered as bitcoin failed to participate in a risk-on tape. Bitcoin fell 3.63% in the 24 hours to October 7, a day after the S&P 500 fund posted its highest close in a year at $779.09 and the Nasdaq-100 fund a third straight one-year high, failing to rally with equities at highs is weaker evidence than falling in a broad sell-off. The macro legs that explained the earlier run are against it: the dollar index closed a one-year-high 102.17 on October 5 and oil back above $100 firmed the dollar again on October 7, while bitcoin and the VIX moved in opposite directions over the last 20 sessions (correlation -0.53) after moving independently over 60 (+0.09), so the asset is trading as a risk-sensitive line rather than a hedge. Next check: bitcoin holds above $80,000 through October 14; a break below with stablecoin supply contracting would confirm weakness, while a reclaim led by inflows with the dollar fading would reverse the lower. September 12 update: the run ended and the complex split. Bitcoin fell 2.90% to $77,345, including a 2.64% session, after three weeks of record fund buying, while ether rose 3.10% and closed at $2,538.96 on September 12, the highest in about nine months, the first window in this leg where the two moved apart rather than together. The macro leg that had been doing the explaining reversed: the 2-year and 10-year closed at one-year highs of 4.56% and 4.95%, and the VIX rose 3.22 points in five sessions to 17.54, bigger than all but 24 of the last 120 such moves. Stablecoin supply at $312.3 billion keeps the supply-contraction confirmation unarmed, and strong wallets against a bitcoin record by month-end at 0.996 carry almost no information left. Next check: bitcoin holding above $75,000 through September 16; ether holding this level while bitcoin keeps falling makes the split its own theme rather than noise, and accelerating ETF outflows lower this further. September 5 update: a fifth consecutive higher week and nothing in it changed the theme. Bitcoin rose 2.30% to $80,147 and ether 0.40% to $2,473 into a 0.54% dollar decline, with no credit objection at 265bp high yield and no crypto-specific cause replacing the FX explanation that reversed and then returned. Stablecoin supply at $311.5 billion keeps the supply-contraction confirmation unarmed. The one structural note worth carrying is venue mix rather than beta: prediction-market venue volume of $447 million over 24 hours now ranks inside the top decentralised-exchange volume table. Next check: a break below $70,000 or accelerating ETF outflows lowers this; holding the pace through September 11 CPI with a firm dollar raises it. August 29 update: bitcoin rose 1.10% to $78,011 and ether 1.30% to $2,450, so the $75,000 check level held through the inflation print, but the 20%-plus weekly pace stopped the moment the dollar firmed 0.85% to 99.70. The dollar-softening explanation is now clearly reversed and the move continued anyway, which is the more informative half, with still no crypto-specific cause identified. Stablecoin supply reached $310.7 billion, leaving the supply-contraction flip unarmed, and smart wallets are paying for a range on both sides, $343,198 across 12 wallets against a $35,000 dip at 94.5¢ and $253,862 across 13 wallets against a new all-time high this year at 91.2¢, both data-anchored with zero manipulation risk. Next check: a break below $70,000 or accelerating ETF outflows lowers; reclaiming the prior pace with a rising dollar raises. August 28 update: bitcoin cleared $80,000 while the dollar index rose 0.33% to 99.17, so the move that ran two weeks on dollar weakness extended against it. That removes the borrowed FX explanation without supplying a crypto-specific one, which leaves the cause unidentified rather than external. Next check: whether bitcoin holds above $75,000 through September 1 manufacturing data with the dollar firm; below $65,000, or stablecoin supply contracting, reverses the raise. August 26 update: the repricing extended and supply confirmed rather than contradicted it. Bitcoin added 23.7% on the week to $79,432 with ether +31.5%, and total stablecoin supply reached $309.1 billion alongside the move, so growth-into-rally held for a second window and the supply-contraction flip stayed unarmed. The cause is still outside crypto, the same weeks paid gold, silver, and miners, which makes July core PCE firming to 3.34% the first genuine test of a move built on dollar weakness. Next check: whether bitcoin holds above $75,000 through the week after core PCE; below $65,000, or stablecoin supply contracting, reverses the raise. August 22 update: the non-participation read reversed outright. Bitcoin rose 22.70% on the week to about $77,200, 10.3% in the August 20 session alone to $71,655, then 7.97% more to $77,337, with ether +28.70%, against the S&P 500 down 1.35% to 1.77% depending on the window, so crypto led while the leaders lagged. The cause sits outside crypto: the dollar index fell 0.86% to 98.80 and paid bitcoin, gold and crude in the same week. Confirmation came from the dated markets rather than spot alone, the No leg on a $55,000 dip rose 77.65% over seven days to 75.5¢, traded odds of $100,000 this year moved to roughly 26% from about 14% in a day, and stablecoin supply grew to $309.5 billion with DEX volume at roughly 1.8x its seven-day average, which kills the supply-contraction confirmation the map was carrying. Converged wallets still fade a new all-time high at 92¢, so this is a range repricing higher, not a breakout call. Next check: whether bitcoin holds above $70,000 through the August 26 core PCE release; back below $65,000, or stablecoin supply contracting, reverses the raise. August 15 update: crypto failed to participate in a risk-on week, which is the weaker kind of weakness. Bitcoin fell 3.10% to $63,036 and ether 2.10% to $1,882.81 while equities rose broadly and the VIX fell 1.15 to 14.25, not selling off with risk, just not showing up. Traded odds of a $55,000 touch before year-end rose to roughly 57%, while smart money sits against both tails, 0.9555 against a new all-time high and 0.9675 against a $25,000 dip, describing a range rather than a breakdown. Stablecoin supply kept climbing above $307.6 billion, which cuts directly against the supply-contraction confirmation the map was carrying. Next check: a second consecutive risk-on week with crypto down confirms a structural de-rating; one full week of re-coupling to equity beta restores the theme. August 12 update: crypto participated without leading. BTC fell 2.0% to $62,766 into August 1, then rose 3.40% to $65,079 into August 8, with ETH at $1,922.97 and total stablecoin supply essentially flat at $306.8B then $307.2B (USDT $183.1B, USDC $72.3B). The tension worth naming is that spot moved about 2% while the medium-downside distribution moved almost ten points: the No side of a dip to $55,000 fell 9.9 points to 0.455 before No on $45,000 settled at 0.805 on only $54,283 across nine wallets, which is too small to lean on. Positioning is repricing faster than price. Confirm weakness on stablecoin supply contracting alongside spot; invalidate if supply keeps growing and downside odds mean-revert. July 6 update: BTC/ETH bounced with risk after payrolls, but the cleaner signal stayed in rails and market plumbing. Wintermute framed the move as relief rather than independent crypto strength, while Delphi and Castle kept value-accrual and options-market structure in Context. Keep BTC as liquidity-sensitive and focus proof on ETF flows, MSTR funding quality, and whether rails publish real usage.