Demographic fiscal drag

Conviction over time

Two snapshots are needed.

Event timeline

1. retire September 30, 2026

   September 30, 2026: retire orphan theme-state row, candidate never gained an H2 section in theme-map or trigger-board.

   daily brief · triggers: Not yet triggered

2. candidate July 5, 2026

   SS OASI depletion moved to Q4 2032; EU population peaking 2026; US labor force growth near zero; state pensions $1.27T unfunded; US primary deficit ~2.6% GDP with interest-burden feedback loop.

   daily brief · triggers: Partial · next check: Structural long-run fiscal/labor pressure distinct from current rate policy. Existing themes (Fed/rates, EM stress) can't hold it. Watch pension solvency data and labor force participation rate.

Related claims

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