Fed / Inflation / Rates
Tracks how inflation and labor data change the expected path of Fed policy and market interest rates.
October 10 update: held on the weekly reconciliation, with the week ending roughly where it started. The 30-year closed a one-year-high 5.67% on October 7 before strong 10-year and 30-year auctions pulled it back to 5.60% on October 8; effective fed funds held 3.88%, a nine-month high (209 sessions). The front end kept easing: the 2-year fell 11bp in five sessions to 4.77% and 2s10s widened to 0.51% on October 7, a second bull-steepening signal. The map's own checks split: 30-year below 5.60% on October 8 settled MISS (closed 5.60, right on the line), while 10-year below 5.35% on October 9 settled HIT (closed 5.24). Over the last 20 sessions 10-year breakevens and WTI decoupled (correlation -0.03 versus +0.62 over 60), so oil is no longer feeding the inflation-expectations leg. Next check: CPI on October 14, with the 2-year below 4.85% and 10-year below 5.35% through October 14 and the 10-year below 5.30% through October 16 all open; a 10-year close above 5.35% is the flip condition. October 7 update: held at high after a week that ended roughly where it started on the reconciliation (the 10-year up 11bp to 5.28% and the 30-year up 14bp on the week, outweighing one soft payrolls print). The long end then pushed again: on October 5 the 10-year closed 5.31% and the 30-year 5.66%, both the highest closes in a year, so the map's own 30-year-above-5.50%-on-October-3 check settled HIT (closed 5.63 on October 2). The composition changed on October 6: short-term yields fell faster than long ones, the 2-year down 10bp in five sessions and 2s10s widening 11bp to 0.48%, a bull steepening that prices some easing at the front end while term premium keeps the long end near its highs. Effective fed funds held 3.88%, a nine-month high. The October 7 $39 billion 10-year auction and the Fed minutes are the next tests. Next check: the open 30-year-below-5.60%-through-October-8 and 10-year-below-5.35%-through-October-9 checks, then the 2-year holding below 4.85% through October 14; a 30-year close back under 5.50% is the weekly flip condition that would lower conviction, while a weak 10-year auction pushing the 10-year through 5.35% restores the long-end raise. October 2 update: lowered near-term after soft payrolls interrupted a week of fresh long-end extremes. The 30-year closed a one-year-high 5.64% on September 30 and the 10-year 5.29%, also a one-year high, after a 24bp five-session rise in the 30-year, the largest in the stored 120, with 2s10s steepening to 0.41%–0.46% and effective fed funds still at a nine-month-high 3.88%. The map's own below-0.40% 2s10s-through-September-30 check settled MISS (closed 0.41). Soft September payrolls (+29,000; unemployment 4.2%) then cut the case for another near-term hike even as the long end stayed elevated near 5.61%–5.63% into October 2. Composition therefore shifted from a pure hike-path raise to term-premium-led long rates with a softer front-end policy read. Next check: 30-year holds below 5.60% through October 8; a close back through 5.60% with payroll revisions or services prices re-heating would restore the hike leg, while a 30-year under 5.45% with 2s10s compressing marks the yield spike as fading. September 30 update: raised as the long end printed fresh extremes into Core PCE day. After the September 24 one-year highs (2-year 4.87%, 10-year 5.18%, 30-year 5.47%), the curve kept bear-steepening: on September 29 the 10-year closed 5.26% and the 30-year 5.59%, both the highest closes in a year, each up 30bp in five sessions, the biggest such moves in the stored 120, while 2s10s steepened another 12bp to 0.37% and reverse-repo balances jumped 10.99 points in five sessions. Effective fed funds held 3.88%, the highest in about nine months across 202 sessions. The prior below-0.40%-through-September-30 2s10s check is therefore breached on the steepening side with the 30-year well clear of 5.45%, handing more weight to term premium and long-end supply rather than a policy-led flatten. Next check: 30-year holds above 5.40% through October 3; a close back under 5.40% with 2s10s compressing again would mark this as a one-week overshoot rather than a new regime. September 26 update: the hike arrived and the repricing moved out the curve. The Fed raised a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase in three years, and it landed as priced: stocks and bonds both rose on the decision, effective fed funds printed 3.88% on September 24, the highest in about nine months, and 2s10s closed 0.27% on September 16, the tightest gap in a year, so the market declined to price a long run of further increases. The following week reversed that composition. On September 24 the 2-year closed 4.87%, the 10-year 5.18%, and the 30-year 5.47%, all one-year highs; the 10-year's 24bp five-session rise is the largest in the stored 120, the 2-year added 20bp and the 30-year 18bp, and 2s10s steepened 11bp to 0.36%. The window therefore moved from bear flattening to bear steepening led by the 10-year rather than the 30-year, and the 2-year continuation check (above 4.50% through September 23) reads as met with room. Next check: 2s10s holding below 0.40% through September 30, the delta's own condition, now with 4bp of room; a close through 0.40% with the 30-year above 5.45% on weak long-dated demand hands the argument back to term premium, and a 2-year back under 4.65% lowers it. September 16 update: the front end repriced three more times and every one printed a one-year high. The 2-year closed 4.56%, 4.63%, and 4.65% on September 10, 11, and 14, with five-session moves of 17bp, 29bp, and 28bp, the last two the largest in the stored 120, while the 10-year closed 4.95%, 4.96%, and 4.97%, also one-year highs, and traded above 5% for the first time since 2007. 2s10s flattened 10bp, then 9bp, then 8bp, so all three windows read as bear flattening: the market is repricing the next few meetings, not the long run. Hike odds went from better than 73% to 81% by September 11 and to near-certain into the September 16 decision, with Brent at $107-109 supplying the argument. The standing check that the 2-year hold above 4.40% through September 18 is met with room. Next check: the 2-year holding above 4.50% through September 23; a 2-year back under 4.40% lowers it, and a 30-year outrunning the front end on weak long-dated demand hands the argument back to term premium. September 12 update: the market repriced the next few meetings rather than the long run. The 2-year closed 4.56% and the 10-year 4.95% on September 10, both one-year highs, with the 30-year at 5.37%; over five sessions the 2-year added 17bp and the 10-year 16bp while 2s10s flattened 10bp to 0.33%, each among the largest handful of the last 120 five-session moves, which is bear flattening rather than a term-premium leg. August CPI printed 3.71% year over year and futures went from roughly 60% odds of a September hike on September 8 to better than 73% by September 11, having spent the summer arguing over cut timing. The composition is the finding: breakevens moved about 1bp and gold fell into a confirmed oil supply shock, so a crude move through $100 was priced as a tax on growth, not as inflation. The standing labor check settled MISS, since a cooling read needed the 2-year to fall and stay lower after the employment report and it rose instead. Next check: the 2-year holding above 4.40% through September 18, with a hike delivered on September 16 while breakevens stay near 2.35% keeping this a front-end repricing; a 2-year back below 4.30% lowers it, and a 30-year above 5.45% on weak long-dated demand hands the argument back to term premium. September 5 update: the front-end leg held and the FX leg that carried last window's raise came off. The 2-year printed 4.39% on September 1 and 2, the highest closes in the stored 252 sessions and a 22bp five-session move (z +2.2), then ended the week exactly where it started at 4.34%; the 10-year added 4bp to 4.77% after its own 252-session high at 4.79%, while the 30-year added only 3bp to 5.25%, so the repricing was belly-led rather than term-premium-led and breakevens rose 4bp to 2.35% with effective fed funds unchanged at 3.63%. The data kept services carrying the argument, August payrolls +162,000, unemployment 4.1%, ISM Services prices paid 72.6, the hottest since 2022, but the dollar confirmation reversed, with USD/JPY down 2.42% to 156.22, and the 10-year note net short grew 90,452 to 897,236 contracts (report date September 1), so a supply accident and a squeeze stay hard to separate. Next check: the 2-year holding above 4.30% through September 11 CPI, with a 2-year through 4.45% and breakevens above 2.45% raising and a 2-year below 4.25% on cooling core lowering; a 30-year above 5.35% on weak long-dated auction demand hands the argument back to term premium. September 2 update: the front end took the argument back and the curve bear-flattened. The 10-year closed August 31 at 4.75%, the highest close in the stored 252 sessions, the 2-year added 17bp to 4.34%, 2s10s narrowed 7bp to 40bp, and the 30-year fell 5bp to 5.22%, the opposite composition of August's term-premium signature, with breakevens up only 3bp to 2.35%, so nominal yields did the work rather than inflation compensation. The dollar confirmed this time at +0.58% to 99.57 with USD/JPY at 160.06, so the raise condition that fired in FX alone last window now has rates alongside it. Next check: the 2-year holding above 4.30% into the September 4 employment report and above 4.25% through September 11, with ISM Services prices paid on September 3 the first read on whether services pressure survives without energy; a 30-year back above 5.30% hands the argument back to term premium, a 2-year under 4.10% lowers it. August 29 update: the chair called inflation not meaningfully slowing and recommitted to 2%, and the curve did the opposite. 2s10s flattened 11bp to 39bp through August 28 with breakevens down 3bp to 2.31%, the 30-year at 5.19% and the 2-year at 4.20% on August 27, effective fed funds unchanged at 3.63%, against July core PCE 3.34% and core CPI 2.79%. The raise condition, sticky follow-through in yields, dollar, and USD/JPY after the print, fired in FX only and failed in rates; seven high-scored wallets lifting no-cuts-in-2026 from about 79¢ to 87.6¢ on $68,915 (narrative-reactive, manipulation risk 30) agrees with the curve rather than testing it. Next check: the 2-year back above 4.20% and the 30-year above 5.25% together raises; a cooler core print with the front end under 4.10% lowers. August 28 update: the long end gave back the August build and the front end slipped under the level the last raise depended on. The 30-year closed August 25 at 5.17%, below both the 5.25% mid-month level and the month's 5.31% high, while the 2-year eased to 4.17% and 2s10s flattened 3bp to 47bp, a parallel easing rather than the front-led firming that followed core PCE at 3.34%, so neither end is currently carrying the inflation argument. Next check: whether the 30-year stays below 5.25% and the 2-year below 4.20% through the September 4 employment report rather than backing up on the next long-dated auction, with September 1 manufacturing prices paid the first read on whether services pressure survives without energy. August 26 update: core firmed just as the fuel that was supposed to be driving it fell, and the pressure moved to the front end. July core PCE rose to 3.34% year over year from 3.29% with headline at 3.70%, in the same week Brent fell 5.19% to $86.57, services prices, not energy, now carry the whole inflation argument. The curve reversed the prior two windows' signature: the 2-year added 5-7bp to 4.24% and the 10-year 6bp to 4.74% while the 30-year fell 5bp to 5.23%, flattening 2s10s to 46bp from 50bp, and speculative 10-year shorts were cut 44,596 to 875,800 (report date August 18). Next check: whether ISM Services prices paid stays firm on September 3 and the 2-year holds above 4.20% into the September 4 jobs report; a 30-year back above 5.30% hands the argument back to term premium, a 2-year under 4.10% lowers it. August 22 update: the long-end thrust stalled and the work passed to inflation compensation. The 30-year closed at 5.23% on August 20, 2bp lower on the week after touching 5.29% on August 18, while the 2-year rose 2bp to 4.19%, the 10-year 1bp to 4.69%, and 2s10s flattened 1bp to 50bp, the opposite composition of the prior two windows. What moved instead was breakevens, up 7bp to 2.34% as Brent gained 6.39%, so the long real yield fell even with nominals roughly flat. Effective fed funds held at 3.63%, the balance sheet shrank 0.21% to $6.746 trillion (August 19) with overnight reverse repo drained to $0.2 billion, and no-cuts-in-2026 traded at 86.2%, a point higher on $308,000 of weekly volume. Next check: the August 26 core PCE for whether fuel costs are reaching services prices rather than staying in the headline; the 30-year above 5.30% or breakevens above 2.45% re-raises the term-premium read, a clean core cooling lowers it. August 19 update: the long end broke to a 19-year high while everything short of it stayed still. The 30-year touched 5.29% on August 18, the highest since 2007, and closed the week 7bp higher at 5.31%, while the 2-year fell 2bp and then 3bp, effective fed funds held at 3.63%, and 10-year breakevens were unchanged at 2.27%. Bear-steepening with inflation compensation flat isolates term premium as the mover, the second consecutive window in which a quiet front end and cooling data coexisted with a rising long end. Next check: whether the 30-year holds above 5.25% through Wednesday's July FOMC minutes and the August 26 core PCE, or slips back once the oil headlines fade. August 15 update: three cool prints arrived and the long end refused them. July CPI printed 3.54% year over year with core 2.79% and headline +0.1% on the month, PPI fell 0.78%, and retail sales fell 0.58%; the 2-year fell 4bp and the 10-year 2bp while the 30-year rose 2bp to 5.21%, steepening 2s10s 5bp to 51bp. Bear-steepening into cooling data is the cleanest term-premium signature available, because the data itself removed the policy explanation for higher long yields. The $25.0 billion 30-year cleared at 5.216% with a 2.39 bid-to-cover and $31.3 billion accepted, effective fed funds held at 3.63%, breakevens rose 2bp to 2.27%, and the 11-cuts-in-2026 contract sits at 0.1% on $514K liquidity, so the argument is about the long end rather than the path. Speculative 10-year note shorts grew 100,048 to 831,204 (report date August 11), keeping a supply accident and a squeeze hard to separate. Next check: whether the 30-year drops below 5.10% on the next weak print, or back under 5.00% with the curve flattening on strong auction demand. August 12 update: the policy leg cooled and the funding leg did not. June core PCE rose 0.13% month over month, about a 1.6% annualized pace and the mildest since March 2025, with the annual rate still 3.29% and June CPI 3.73%; July payrolls fell 23,000 against forecasts for a gain, June was revised to +20,000, unemployment rose to 4.1% on a 264,000 labor-force decline, and the curve fell across the board to 2Y 4.25%, 10Y 4.69%, and 30Y 5.22% with effective fed funds unchanged at 3.63%. Q2 GDP printed 1.5% annualized versus 2.1% prior. Against that, three of twelve officials voted to hike on July 30, Hammack said a number of increases may be needed to reach 2%, breakevens rose 5bp to 2.27%, and the 30-year reached 5.25%. Two-cuts-in-2026 pricing stayed near 2.8% and no-cut-at-all odds only slipped to 85.9% from 89%, so the market still treats this as inflation-bound rather than growth-bound. Next checks: the July CPI print, and the August 12-13 10- and 30-year auctions, where a 931,252-contract non-commercial 10-year short (down 67,937, CFTC report date August 4) makes a supply accident and a squeeze hard to tell apart within a session. July 10 update: rates stayed data-gated. Warsh taskforces and Fed-governance pressure are institutional signals, not rate-cut evidence. TreasuryDirect showed the long-end reopenings cleared without disorder, while EIA products and July 14 CPI remain the inflation proof path. Keep duration relief tactical until CPI, product prices, services prices, and Fed language confirm softer inflation.
What would move it
▲ Raise
- Sticky follow-through in yields, the dollar, and USD/JPY after the PCE print.
- 5-year yields rising relative to 30-year.
- Dollar bid strengthens with real yields.
▼ Lower
- Clear cooling in the next inflation prints.
- Energy pass-through fading before it reaches core.
- Labor data weak enough to revive cut talk.
Live triggers
- Next check: 2-year holds above 4.80% through October 16.partial
Conviction over time
Event timeline
- raise October 14, 2026
Evidence: September prices outside food and energy rose 0.3% for a second month while Fed Funds (EFFR) closed at 3.88% on 2026-10-13, the highest close in about nine months (211 sessions).
- measured October 13, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-13): the highest close in about nine months (211 sessions).
- hold October 13, 2026
Evidence: Fed Funds (EFFR) held at 3.88% (2026-10-09), the highest close in about nine months (210 sessions), and the Dollar Index closed at 102.58 on 2026-10-12, the highest close in a year, as Treasuries reopen into Wednesday's inflation report.
- measured October 12, 2026
Dollar Index (DXY) 102.58 (2026-10-12): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 12, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-09): the highest close in about nine months (210 sessions).
- hold October 12, 2026
Evidence: The 10-year last closed at 5.24% (2026-10-09) and the Fed's overnight lending rate, Fed Funds (EFFR), held at 3.88% (2026-10-08), the highest close in about nine months (209 sessions), so oil's jump lands right before Wednesday's inflation report.
- measured October 11, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-08): the highest close in about nine months (209 sessions).
- measured October 9, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-08): the highest close in about nine months (209 sessions).
- hold October 9, 2026
Evidence: The 30-year yield fell 7bp to 5.60% on Thursday, while the Fed's overnight lending rate, Fed Funds (EFFR), held at 3.88% (2026-10-08), the highest close in about nine months (209 sessions).
- measured October 8, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-08): the highest close in about nine months (209 sessions).
- hold October 8, 2026
Evidence: The 30Y Yield closed at 5.67% on 2026-10-07, the highest close in a year, even though the 10-year sale drew strong demand and short-term yields fell.
- measured October 7, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-07): the highest close in about nine months (208 sessions).
- measured October 7, 2026
30Y Yield 5.67% (2026-10-07): the highest close in a year.
- hold October 7, 2026
Evidence: The 2s10s (the gap between short- and long-term Treasury yields) spread, the gap between 10-year and 2-year yields, reached 0.48%, up 11bp (0.11 percentage points) in five sessions, bigger than all but 13 of the last 120 five-session moves, because short-term yields fell faster.
- measured October 6, 2026
Bull steepening: Short-term Treasury yields fell faster than long-term ones: the market is pricing in rate cuts. (2Y -10bp in five sessions, 2s10s +11bp in five sessions)
- measured October 6, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-06): the highest close in about nine months (207 sessions).
- measured October 5, 2026
30Y Yield 5.66% (2026-10-05): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 5, 2026
10Y Yield 5.31% (2026-10-05): the highest close in a year.
- hold October 5, 2026
Evidence: The 30-year yield closed at 5.63%, up 14bp (0.14 percentage points) in five sessions, bigger than all but 8 of the last 120 five-session moves.
- measured October 4, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-02): the highest close in about nine months (205 sessions).
- measured October 2, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-01): the highest close in about nine months (204 sessions).
- lower October 2, 2026
Evidence: Fed Funds (EFFR) closed at 3.88% on 2026-10-01, the highest close in about nine months (204 sessions), while today's soft payrolls cut the case for another near-term hike.
- measured October 1, 2026
Dollar Index (DXY) 102.10 (2026-10-01): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 1, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-01): the highest close in about nine months (204 sessions).
- raise October 1, 2026
Evidence: 30Y Yield closed at 5.64% on 2026-09-30, the highest close in a year, and 10Y Yield 5.29% is also the highest close in a year.
- measured September 30, 2026
30Y Yield 5.64% (2026-09-30): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 30, 2026
10Y Yield 5.29% (2026-09-30): the highest close in a year.
- raise September 30, 2026
Evidence: 30Y Yield closed at 5.59% on 2026-09-29, the highest close in a year, and 10Y Yield 5.26% is also the highest close in a year.
- measured September 29, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-09-28): the highest close in about nine months (201 sessions).
- measured September 29, 2026
30Y Yield 5.49% (2026-09-25): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 28, 2026
10Y Yield 5.18% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 28, 2026
2Y Yield 4.87% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 27, 2026
10Y Yield 5.18% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 27, 2026
2Y Yield 4.87% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 26, 2026
10Y Yield 5.18% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 26, 2026
2Y Yield 4.87% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 17, 2026
10Y Yield 5.00% (2026-09-15): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 17, 2026
2Y Yield 4.67% (2026-09-15): the highest close in a year.
- hold September 17, 2026
Evidence: The quarter-point increase landed as priced, and the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields, the 2s10s Spread 0.27% (2026-09-16), is the lowest close in a year.
- measured September 16, 2026
10Y Yield 4.97% (2026-09-14): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 16, 2026
2Y Yield 4.65% (2026-09-14): the highest close in a year.
- hold September 16, 2026
Evidence: From stored daily closes, 2Y Yield 4.65%: up 28bp (0.28 percentage points) in five sessions, the biggest five-session move in the last 120 sessions, with a rate increase now the widely expected outcome today.
- measured September 15, 2026
10Y Yield 4.96% (2026-09-11): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 15, 2026
2Y Yield 4.63% (2026-09-11): the highest close in a year.
- raise September 15, 2026
Evidence: 2Y Yield 4.63%: up 29bp (0.29 percentage points) in five sessions, the biggest five-session move in the last 120 sessions, and the 10-year has since pushed above 5%.
- measured September 14, 2026
10Y Yield 4.95% (2026-09-10): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 14, 2026
2Y Yield 4.56% (2026-09-10): the highest close in a year.
- raise September 14, 2026
Evidence: Odds on a rate rise at Wednesday’s meeting reached 81% by September 11, with 2Y Yield 4.56% (2026-09-10): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 12, 2026
10Y Yield 4.95% (2026-09-10): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 12, 2026
2Y Yield 4.56% (2026-09-10): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 11, 2026
10Y Yield 4.83% (2026-09-09): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 11, 2026
2Y Yield 4.43% (2026-09-09): the highest close in a year.
- raise September 11, 2026
Evidence: 10Y Yield 4.83% (2026-09-09): the highest close in a year, and traders now put better than 73% odds on a rate increase at the September 16 meeting.
- measured September 10, 2026
10Y Yield 4.80% (2026-09-08): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 10, 2026
2Y Yield 4.39% (2026-09-08): the highest close in a year.
- raise September 10, 2026
Evidence: 10Y Yield 4.80% (2026-09-08): the highest close in a year, and futures now put roughly 60% odds on a Fed increase at the September meeting rather than a cut.
- measured September 9, 2026
USD/JPY 153.27 (2026-09-09): the lowest close in about six months (147 sessions).
- measured September 8, 2026
USD/JPY 153.85 (2026-09-08): the lowest close in about six months (146 sessions).
- measured September 7, 2026
USD/JPY 154.46 (2026-09-07): the lowest close in about six months (141 sessions).
- hold September 4, 2026
Evidence: Payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment at 4.1% and services prices paid at 72.6, the hottest since 2022, while stored daily closes show “2Y Yield 4.39% (2026-09-02): highest close in the stored 252 sessions.”
- hold September 2, 2026
Evidence: The 10-year closed at 4.75% on August 31, the highest close in the stored 252 sessions of daily closes, while the 2-year added 17 basis points to 4.34%, the 2s10s gap narrowed 7 to 40 basis points, and ten-year inflation compensation rose only 3 to 2.35%.
- raise September 1, 2026
Evidence: The dollar index gained 0.58% to 99.57 and USD/JPY 0.58% to 160.06 while the 10-year yield reached 4.75%, its highest since January 2025, and the 2-year sat at 4.34% against a 30-year that fell 5 basis points to 5.22%.
- raise August 26, 2026
Evidence: July core PCE rose to 3.34% year over year from 3.29% with headline at 3.70%, while the 2-year yield added five basis points on the week to 4.24% and the 30-year fell five to 5.23%.
- hold August 25, 2026
Evidence: The 2-year rose 7 basis points on the week to 4.24% and the 10-year 6 to 4.74% while the 30-year added only 2 to 5.27%, flattening the 2s10s gap to 46 basis points, with speculators cutting 10-year short bets by 44,596 contracts to 875,800 net short (official latest, report date August 18, 2026).
- raise August 20, 2026
Evidence: The inflation rate implied by 10-year Treasury prices rose 6 basis points to 2.30% as Brent gained 5.79%, while the 2-year yield fell 1 basis point and the 10-year rose 3 to 4.71%.
- raise August 12, 2026
Evidence: Federal Reserve official Beth Hammack said a number of rate increases may be needed to get inflation to 2%, while the inflation rate implied by 10-year Treasury prices rose 5 basis points to 2.27% and the 30-year yield reached 5.25%.
- lower August 7, 2026
Evidence: July payrolls fell 23,000 against forecasts for a modest gain while core PCE inflation is still 3.29%, and the traded chance of no Fed cut at all in 2026 slipped to 85.9% from 89% a week ago on heavy volume.
- raise August 6, 2026
Evidence: Gold gained 4.3% to about $4,290 in its best session since February, days after governors said they stood ready to hike, while the inflation rate implied by 10-year Treasury prices fell 5 basis points to 2.22%.
- hold July 31, 2026
Evidence: June core PCE rose 0.13% on the month, about a 1.6% annual pace, two days after three of twelve officials voted to raise rates and the 30-year yield closed at 5.23%.
- raise July 30, 2026
Evidence: Three officials voted to raise rates while long bonds weakened after the unchanged decision.
- lower July 17, 2026
Evidence: The 10-year term premium is below its year-earlier level and 10-year inflation expectations remain near 2.22%, contradicting the idea that fiscal stress is lifting every Treasury maturity together.
- lower July 15, 2026
Evidence: June PPI fell 1.26% month over month after CPI fell 0.4% and core CPI was flat; the condition remains partial because annual PPI was 10.11%, Core PCE is 3.41% and the relevant PCE components were not supplied.
- lower July 14, 2026
Evidence: Official June CPI printed −0.42% month over month headline and −0.02% core, partially firing the cooling-inflation condition; the trigger is incomplete because core PCE remains 3.41%, Brent is above $87 and the bond response is not yet clean.
- hold July 9, 2026
Hold high: inflation is still above target, fuel risk pressures rate relief, and today’s 10Y/30Y auction tests long-term Treasury demand.
- hold July 8, 2026
Hold high conviction: Core PCE is 3.41%, oil risk rose, and smart money backs no 2026 cuts more than a clean easing story.
- hold July 7, 2026
Hold high conviction: inflation is still high, long-bond auctions are next, and smart-money Polymarket flow backs no hike plus no cuts.
- hold July 6, 2026
Hold high conviction: no new official services print; labor miss is not enough by itself.
- hold July 3, 2026
Hold high conviction, but the evidence shifted from data-only to data plus Fed credibility risk.
- lower July 3, 2026
Lower oil-shock conviction. Supply relief, Gulf flow normalization, and the research sweep weakened shortage trades.
Related claims
| Opened | Claim | Status |
|---|---|---|
| October 14, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-10-14 printed hot versus the Cleveland Fed nowcast; the map said Gold (GLD) down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| October 14, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-10-14 printed hot versus the Cleveland Fed nowcast; the map said 10Y Yield up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | awaiting outcome |
| October 14, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-10-14 printed hot versus the Cleveland Fed nowcast; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| October 14, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-10-14 printed hot versus the Cleveland Fed nowcast; the map said 2Y Yield up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | awaiting outcome |
| October 12, 2026 | At resolution, "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 9, 2026 | 10Y Yield closes below 5.30% on 2026-10-16 (settled by stored daily closes). | awaiting outcome |
| October 8, 2026 | 10Y Yield closes below 5.35% on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes). | awaiting outcome |
| October 7, 2026 | 2Y Yield closes below 4.85% on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes). | awaiting outcome |
| October 6, 2026 | 3-Year Note Auction 2026-10-06 printed hot versus the prior same-term auctions; the map said 10Y Yield up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | incorrect |
| October 5, 2026 | 10Y Yield closes below 5.35% on 2026-10-09 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| October 2, 2026 | Employment Situation 2026-10-02 printed cool versus a fixed threshold; the map said 10Y Yield down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | incorrect |
| October 2, 2026 | 30Y Yield closes below 5.60% on 2026-10-08 (settled by stored daily closes). | incorrect |
| October 1, 2026 | 30Y Yield closes above 5.50% on 2026-10-03 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 28, 2026 | Retail Sales 2026-09-28 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said 10Y Yield up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 28, 2026 | Retail Sales 2026-09-28 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 17, 2026 | 2s10s Spread closes below 0.40% on 2026-09-30 (settled by stored daily closes). | incorrect |
| September 16, 2026 | Retail Sales 2026-09-16 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said 10Y Yield up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | excluded |
| September 16, 2026 | Retail Sales 2026-09-16 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 16, 2026 | 2Y Yield closes above 4.50% on 2026-09-23 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 15, 2026 | 2Y Yield closes above 4.50% on 2026-09-25 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 14, 2026 | U.S. PPI 2026-09-14 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 14, 2026 | 2Y Yield closes above 4.30% on 2026-09-18 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 14, 2026 | U.S. PPI 2026-09-14 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said 2Y Yield up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 11, 2026 | 2Y Yield closes above 4.40% on 2026-09-18 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 10, 2026 | U.S. PPI 2026-09-10 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said 2Y Yield up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 10, 2026 | 10Y Yield closes above 4.70% on 2026-09-16 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 10, 2026 | U.S. PPI 2026-09-10 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 4, 2026 | 2Y Yield closes above 4.30% on 2026-09-11 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 2, 2026 | 2Y Yield closes above 4.25% on 2026-09-11 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 1, 2026 | 2Y Yield closes above 4.30% on 2026-09-04 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| August 31, 2026 | At resolution, "Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| August 26, 2026 | 2Y Yield closes above 4.20% on 2026-09-04 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| August 25, 2026 | 2Y Yield closes above 4.20% on 2026-08-26 (settled by stored daily closes). | excluded |
| August 14, 2026 | Retail Sales 2026-08-14 printed cool; the map said 10Y Yield down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | incorrect |
| August 12, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-08-12 printed cool; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | incorrect |
| August 12, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-08-12 printed cool; the map said 10Y Yield down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| August 12, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-08-12 printed cool; the map said 2Y Yield down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| July 11, 2026 | Flip lower only if inflation cools materially and labor weakens without energy passing into core or services. A hot CPI plus firm products would raise conviction. | qualitative review |
| July 10, 2026 | At resolution, "Fed rate hike in 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | incorrect |
| July 10, 2026 | At resolution, "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| July 5, 2026 | At resolution, "Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| July 4, 2026 | Labor-cooling trigger partially fired; broad follow-through is unconfirmed. Flip dovish only if front-end yields, DXY, USD/JPY, and services prices/employment soften together; flip hawkish if inflation or Fed-credibility risk dominates. | qualitative review |