Geopolitics

Conviction over time

Two snapshots are needed.

Event timeline

1. retire September 30, 2026

   September 30, 2026: retire orphan theme-state row, no H2 section; geopolitics coverage lives under Iran / Hormuz / Oil and related rows.

   daily brief · triggers: Not yet triggered

2. retire September 28, 2026

   No longer present in the canonical standing theme map.

   weekend review · triggers: Invalidated

3. retire September 26, 2026

   No longer present in the canonical standing theme map.

   weekend review · triggers: Invalidated

4. retire September 16, 2026

   No longer present in the canonical standing theme map.

   weekend review · triggers: Invalidated

5. hold July 5, 2026

   Smart money: Iran-invasion No at 88.5% (35 wallets, $1M), Taiwan-invasion No at 96.4% (19 wallets, $1.1M). Ukraine "Heat Death" freeze thesis, half of generating capacity knocked out.

   daily brief · triggers: Not yet triggered · next check: War-tail risk lower . Corroborates de-escalation read. Watch Hormuz traffic recovery and Taiwan Strait activity.

Related claims

No claims reference this theme yet.