Iran / Hormuz / Oil
Tracks whether geopolitical risk around Iran and Hormuz is creating a real oil supply shock or a temporary risk premium.
October 10 update: raised on the week, provisionally. Brent jumped to about $105 on October 8 from a $100.20 close as Hormuz shipping fears returned, then eased to about $104 on October 9 as event-market odds of US crude touching $100 in October fell to 34% from 39%; Brent ended the week up 1.66%. The raise rests on an intraday spike: Brent closed 104.28 on October 8, so the map's below-105 check settled HIT, and US crude barely moved. Breakevens and WTI decoupled over the last 20 sessions (correlation -0.03 versus +0.62 over 60), so the oil move is not passing into inflation pricing. Downstream legs (insurance, freight, refining margins) still have not confirmed. Next check: Brent between 100 and 105 on October 14 and WTI below $95 through October 16 (all open); a Brent close back below $100 is the flip condition that undoes the raise. October 7 update: the weekly reconciliation confirms the lower, Brent fell 3.36% on the week and speculators cut crude bets, on top of the earlier 10.01% five-session drop in natural gas. The two following sessions held rather than extended: Brent read $101.53 on October 5, down 4.04% over seven days, and $101.70 on October 7, back above $100 and firming the dollar but still down 1.81% over seven days. Downstream confirmation (war-risk insurance, freight, refining margins) is still absent in both directions, so the theme sits on price alone. Next check: Brent holds below 105 through October 8 and again through October 14; a close back above $105 is the weekly flip condition that restores the raise, while a slide toward $95 with transit counts normalising would lower it further. October 2 update: lowered as the energy complex gave back part of the supply-shock premium. Natural gas closed $2.97, down 10.01% in five sessions, bigger than all but 5 of the last 120, while Brent's weekly slide and higher Saudi pipeline flows cut the near-term oil inflation argument that had carried the prior raise when Brent settled near $107–$109. Downstream confirmation (war-risk insurance, freight, refining margins) was still missing before this window and remains missing, so the price retracement without those legs met weakens the case rather than proving route normalisation. Next check: Brent holds below 105 through October 8; a reclaim above 105 with transit counts still near the August six-a-day print would restore the raise, while three sessions of normal transits with product cracks easing would lower it further. September 16 update: crude extended hard and the demand side argued against it. WTI rose 13.73% in five sessions to $104.04 and Brent 13.34% to $109.12 on September 14, moves bigger than all but 10 and 13 of the last 120, before Brent settled at $107.19 after a 7.70% week, and the main energy agency now expects global consumption to shrink this year, so the price is being made on the supply side, consistent with the August 30 count of about six Hormuz transits against a normal 85. The standing check that Brent hold above $100 through September 16 is met, and the September 18 line sits $7 below the market. The gap is unchanged and downstream: no war-risk quote, freight rate, or refining margin has moved in either direction, so this is still transit disruption without confirmed cost repricing. Next check: Brent above $100 through September 18, with war-risk insurance and freight rising alongside crude across three sessions the remaining gate; three sessions of normal transits, or Brent back under $95, lowers it. September 12 update: the supply read is now in the composition, not just the level. Brent gained 8.78% on the week to $104.30 after touching $104.70, WTI rose 8.44% to $100.05, and against that natural gas fell 3.41% while prompt gasoline made new lows against the next month, crude accepting higher prices while fuels and gas go the other way points at lost crude supply rather than stronger energy demand, which is consistent with the August 30 count of about six Hormuz transits against a normal 85 and the halted Saudi energy sites. The standing check that Brent hold above $100 through September 16 is met so far. The gap is unchanged and downstream: no war-risk quote, freight rate, or refining margin has moved in either direction, so this remains transit disruption without confirmed cost repricing, and $787,842 across 35 wallets against a US invasion before 2027 scores 33 on observable data, which is attention rather than evidence. Next check: Brent above $100 through September 18, with war-risk insurance and freight rising alongside crude across three sessions the remaining gate; three sessions of normal transits with fuel prices easing, or Brent back under $95, lowers it. September 9 update: the physical evidence this row has demanded since mid-August arrived inside three sessions. About six vessels transited the Strait on August 30 against a normal 85, Saudi Arabia said several energy sites were halted after attacks, and Brent moved $96.28 to $98.01 and then through $100 while WTI held $91.48 after an 8.02% week, the standing check that WTI hold above $88 on September 9 settled HIT. Speculative crude longs at 197,371 net long (report date September 1) are the largest position of the leg and now sit behind a route fact rather than price alone, which is the first change in composition since the seaborne premium argument began. What is still missing is downstream: no war-risk quote, freight rate, or refining margin moved in either direction, so this is transit disruption without confirmed cost repricing, and crude stays the live inflation input against a 2.35% breakeven into September 11 CPI. Next check: Brent holding above $100 through September 16, with war-risk insurance and freight rising alongside crude across three sessions the remaining gate; transits recovering toward 50-plus a day, or Brent back under $95 without product follow-through, lowers it. September 5 update: a seventh window that moved on price and participation with the physical side still blank. WTI rose 8.02% to $91.48 and Brent 7.80% to $96.28 with natural gas +3.48%, the two benchmarks moving together and the seaborne premium at $4.80, while speculative crude longs added 12,970 to 197,371 net long (report date September 1), the largest position of this leg building into the rally. The composition still argues against a route explanation: Brent is not leading WTI, product cracks did not widen, and no transit count, war-risk quote, freight rate, or refining margin moved in either direction for a third straight window, which also leaves crude as the live inflation input against a 2.35% breakeven. Next check: WTI holding above $88 on September 9, and whether Brent starts leading WTI for a full week with cracks widening; crude retracing the 8% without product follow-through lowers this, and only verified transit, insurance, or freight repricing raises it. September 2 update: price fell and took it all back inside one window, with the physical side blank throughout. Brent fell 5.13% to $88.87 as Washington moved to take majority control of Venezuela's output, then the window closed with WTI +10.38% to $89.53 and Brent +8.36% to $94.22, and speculative crude longs sat at 184,401 (report date August 25), still accumulating. The composition points away from the Strait: WTI led Brent for a full window and narrowed the seaborne premium to $4.25, the reverse of what a route disruption produces, and six consecutive windows have moved on crude price alone with nothing touching transits, war-risk insurance, freight, or refining margins. Next check: WTI holding above $88 through September 9, and whether Brent starts leading WTI again or fuel prices and war-risk quotes move at all; only verified transit, insurance, or freight disruption raises this. August 29 update: a fifth consecutive lowering, again entirely on price. Brent fell 4.25% on the week to $89.70 and WTI 3.43% to $83.53, with nothing in the window touching transits, war-risk insurance, freight, or refining margins, and the escalation and enforcement branches producing nothing for a second straight window. The product and participation legs are now quiet rather than supportive, while speculative crude longs still added 4,717 to 184,401 net long (report date August 25), so positioning keeps building against a falling price. Next check: Brent under $85 with product cracks easing completes the retracement; only verified transit, war-risk-insurance, or freight disruption raises it back. August 28 update: a fourth consecutive lowering, entirely on price. Brent fell 6.16% over seven days while credit stayed firm, extending the retracement from $86.57 toward the $85 restore line, and nothing in the window touched transits, war-risk insurance, freight, or refining margins, the escalation and enforcement branches produced no new evidence after both failed last window. Next check: Brent under $85 with product cracks easing, or refining margins normalising while crude holds; verified transit or export disruption remains the only path back up. August 26 update: three consecutive lowerings, price gave back most of the escalation premium while diplomacy softened and sanctions enforcement produced nothing. Brent fell 3.92% to $87.74 and then 5.19% to $86.57 with WTI -3.28% to $82.19, after Iranian civilian leaders publicly pressed for peace and Washington detailed enforcement tools aimed at China's 1.5 million barrels a day of Iranian purchases; traded odds of WTI touching $90 this week collapsed to 2.8% from roughly 51%. The Brent premium over WTI narrowed to $4.92 as Asian refiners lined up to nearly double September purchases of US crude, which is substitution working rather than scarcity. Speculative crude longs still sit at 179,684, up 9,103 (report date August 18), so positioning is now the leg lagging price rather than leading it. Next check: whether the Brent-WTI gap keeps narrowing as September cargoes load; verified transit or export disruption reopens the premium, Brent under $85 with cracks easing lowers further. August 22 update: the last missing leg, positioning, finally fired, while the escalation leg softened. Brent rose 6.39% to $94.39 and WTI 5.49% with natural gas +3.05%, and speculative crude longs grew 9,103 to 179,684 (report date August 18), reversing three straight weeks in which price ran without spec accumulation. That completes the participation condition alongside last week's record refining margins, so the tightness now has price, product and positioning behind it. Against that, Tehran's own public framing walked back escalation, with $1.47 million across 41 converged wallets sitting on No to a US invasion before 2027 at 83.5¢, observable-data score 29, sentiment rather than evidence. The composition therefore changed even as the level rose: less war premium, more accepted physical tightness. Next check: verified transit or export disruption raises the read; Brent under $85 with product cracks easing lowers it. August 19 update: the product leg finally fired. Brent rose 6.51% to $89.00 into August 17 and added 3.61% with WTI 2.51% by August 18, but the decisive evidence was downstream: refining margin on the standard gasoline-and-diesel blend hit an all-time high, worth roughly $93 billion of windfall profit to the majors, which is tightness moving out of headlines and into fuel exactly as the standing check specified. Positioning still refuses to follow, with speculative crude longs down 8,585 to 170,581 (report date August 11), so price has now run without spec accumulation for a third week. Next check: whether pump and diesel prices carry into the energy detail of the next CPI rather than fading with the headlines, and whether war-risk insurance and freight rise with crude across three sessions. August 15 update: the week raised route risk on balances rather than force. Brent rose 5.94% to $88.52 and WTI 5.08% to $82.40 on threatened US economic pressure rather than a military event, and the IEA's August balance cut the projected 2026 surplus to roughly +410 kb/d from +2.46 mb/d, with Hormuz transits at 13 on August 14 against a pre-crisis baseline near 73 a day. The move ran without positioning behind it, speculative crude longs fell 8,585 to 170,581 (report date August 11), and against a heavy build: US commercial crude rose 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million with refineries at 96.2%, a four-week build of 25.6 million. Crude accepting higher prices for a full week rather than spiking and fading meets the participation condition, so the headline-fade read is invalidated for now. Next checks: gasoline and diesel stocks drawing while crude keeps building, which moves tightness out of headlines and into fuel prices, and 50-plus Hormuz transits a day sustained across three consecutive sessions. August 12 update: the war premium drained, then rebuilt on money terms rather than force. Brent closed -11.8% at $83.54 on August 3 and -6.2% at $79.68 on August 5 as an Iran-Oman paid-passage route took shape and Saudi Arabia routed about 7 million barrels a day west by pipeline; WTI reached $78.18 by August 8. It then re-formed: +3.15% to about $86 after Iran ruled out direct US talks, then +4.0% on the week once a reparations demand was attached to any Strait deal, with traded odds of $90 WTI in August up 13 points to 39%. Physical evidence worsened while price faded: three ADNOC vessels reported attacked, Iranian drafting of vessel bans, transits still at a trickle, against a post-OPEC record 4.1 million barrels a day from the UAE in June and speculators adding 31,227 contracts into a 184,742 net long. Washington now expects roughly 600,000 barrels a day of lost supply to persist through end-2027, with official 2026 gasoline and diesel price forecasts raised 3.7% and 5.4%. Three separate escalation events produced no sustained premium, so headlines no longer count: require published Iran-Oman toll terms, or three consecutive sessions of improving Hormuz transits, war-risk insurance, freight, and delivered fuel prices moving together. July 17 update: reported Hormuz traffic stress and firmer distillate structure raised route and product risk, but oil-on-water and softer crude front structure still reject a broad shortage call. Require current traffic plus insurer, freight, LNG, ship-owner, or product-spread proof. Lower the risk only after three improving sessions.
What would move it
▲ Raise
- Sustained tanker disruption.
- Product prices rising alongside crude.
- Failed-deal headlines from both Washington and Tehran.
- Insurance/freight stress worsening.
- Dark-transit share stays high while public traffic counts look normal.
- Friday signing fails or Israel/Lebanon escalation breaks the interim deal path.
- Delayed implementation talks fail to restart or Lebanon language breaks the MoU path.
- Lebanon ceasefire failure, IDF withdrawal disputes, or canceled Switzerland talks break the implementation path.
- June 21 closure reports are confirmed by traffic, insurance, freight, product spreads, or official shipping data.
▼ Lower
- Three-day normalization in Hormuz vessel flows.
- Product spreads easing.
- Confirmed interim deal mechanics.
- Confirmed tanker-flow normalization by June 15.
- Independent AIS, SAR, storage, insurance, product-spread, and buyer evidence all confirm normalization, not just headline traffic counts.
- Switzerland talks publish credible terms and three sessions of traffic, insurance, freight, product-spread, and EIA data confirm clearing.
- June 22 relief reporting is followed by cleaner vessel movement, lower insurance and freight, softer products, and EIA inventory easing.
- Vessel clearing, insurance, freight, product spreads, and petrochemical supply all improve for three consecutive sessions after Friday signing.
- Friday's delayed talks restart with public terms and vessel clearing persists for multiple sessions.
- Brent failing near $100 despite fresh conflict headlines.
- June 24 relief pattern repeats: ship clearing stays visible, product builds continue, insurance/freight ease, and gasoline demand weakness does not turn into refinery stress.
- June 26 relief-with-friction pattern resolves cleanly: Omani-route flow continues, no second strike appears, and fee/toll terms stay modest enough to avoid insurance and freight repricing.
- June 29 stand-down is confirmed by Iranian statements, public Doha terms, cleaner AIS/SAR vessel flow, softer insurance and freight, calmer product spreads, and no new ship incident.
Live triggers
- Next check: Brent holds above 105 through October 16.partial
Conviction over time
Event timeline
- hold October 14, 2026
Evidence: Gasoline's 9.1% monthly jump drove more than half of September's price rise, even though the 10Y Breakeven and WTI (the US crude oil benchmark) Crude have been moving independently over the last 20 sessions (correlation -0.06) after moving together over the last 60 (+0.62), through 2026-10-13.
- hold October 13, 2026
Evidence: Brent eased to $105.76 (live 14:22 UTC) from yesterday's $107.09, and the 10Y Breakeven and WTI (the US crude oil benchmark) Crude have been moving independently over the last 20 sessions (correlation -0.03) after moving together over the last 60 (+0.62), through 2026-10-09.
- measured October 12, 2026
Dollar Index (DXY) 102.58 (2026-10-12): the highest close in a year.
- raise October 12, 2026
Evidence: Brent is trading at $107.09 (live 14:36 UTC), up 2.3% this morning, though the 10Y Breakeven (the inflation rate bond prices imply) and WTI (the US crude oil benchmark) Crude have been moving independently over the last 20 sessions (correlation -0.03) after moving together over the last 60 (+0.62), through 2026-10-09.
- hold October 9, 2026
Evidence: Brent eased to $104.17 (live 14:29 UTC) after Thursday's spike, and traders cut the odds of US crude touching $100 in October to 34% from 39%.
- raise October 8, 2026
Evidence: Brent jumped to $105.07 (live 14:50 UTC) from a $100.20 close as Hormuz shipping fears returned, after the Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 102.24 on 2026-10-07, the highest close in a year.
- measured October 7, 2026
Dollar Index (DXY) 102.24 (2026-10-07): the highest close in a year.
- hold October 7, 2026
Evidence: Brent is back above $100 at $101.70 (live 14:15 UTC), though it is still down 1.81% over seven days.
- hold October 5, 2026
Evidence: Brent is at $101.53 (live 14:10 UTC), down 4.04% over seven days, extending the slide in the oil supply premium.
- lower October 2, 2026
Evidence: Natural Gas closed at $2.97, down 10.01% in five sessions, bigger than all but 5 of the last 120 five-session moves, while Brent's weekly slide and higher Saudi pipeline flows ease the oil inflation premium.
- measured September 29, 2026
Real-yield squeeze on gold: Treasury yields rose while expected inflation did not, so the inflation-adjusted return on bonds went up and gold, which pays no interest, paid for it. (10Y +16bp in five sessions, 10Y BEI +0bp in five sessions, GLD down about 1.4 times its usual five-session move)
- raise September 14, 2026
Evidence: Brent Crude $109.12: up 13.34% in five sessions, bigger than all but 13 of the last 120 five-session moves, while the world’s main energy agency expects global consumption to shrink this year.
- raise September 12, 2026
Curated map conviction changed from Medium, raised; the physical leg finally fired after seven blank windows, with Hormuz transits at about six vessels a day against a normal 85 and Saudi energy sites halted, as Brent crossed $100 to High, raised; crude accepted higher prices all week to Brent $104.30 and WTI $100.05 with a verified transit collapse behind it, and insurance, freight, and margins still unmoved. September 12 update: the supply read is now in the composition, not just the level. Brent gained 8.78% on the week to $104.30 after touching $104.70, WTI rose 8.44% to $100.05, and against that natural gas fell 3.41% while prompt gasoline made new lows against the next month, crude accepting higher prices while fuels and gas go the other way points at lost crude supply rather than stronger energy demand, which is consistent with the August 30 count of about six Hormuz transits against a normal 85 and the halted Saudi energy sites. The standing check that Brent hold above $100 through September 16 is met so far. The gap is unchanged and downstream: no war-risk quote, freight rate, or refining margin has moved in either direction, so this remains transit disruption without confirmed cost repricing, and $787,842 across 35 wallets against a US invasion before 2027 scores 33 on observable data, which is attention rather than evidence. Next check: Brent above $100 through September 18, with war-risk insurance and freight rising alongside crude across three sessions the remaining gate; three sessions of normal transits with fuel prices easing, or Brent back under $95, lowers it. September 9 update: the physical evidence this row has demanded since mid-August arrived inside three sessions. About six vessels transited the Strait on August 30 against a normal 85, Saudi Arabia said several energy sites were halted after attacks, and Brent moved $96.28 to $98.01 and then through $100 while WTI held $91.48 after an 8.02% week, the standing check that WTI hold above $88 on September 9 settled HIT. Speculative crude longs at 197,371 net long (report date September 1) are the largest position of the leg and now sit behind a route fact rather than price alone, which is the first change in composition since the seaborne premium argument began. What is still missing is downstream: no war-risk quote, freight rate, or refining margin moved in either direction, so this is transit disruption without confirmed cost repricing, and crude stays the live inflation input against a 2.35% breakeven into September 11 CPI. Next check: Brent holding above $100 through September 16, with war-risk insurance and freight rising alongside crude across three sessions the remaining gate; transits recovering toward 50-plus a day, or Brent back under $95 without product follow-through, lowers it. September 5 update: a seventh window that moved on price and participation with the physical side still blank. WTI rose 8.02% to $91.48 and Brent 7.80% to $96.28 with natural gas +3.48%, the two benchmarks moving together and the seaborne premium at $4.80, while speculative crude longs added 12,970 to 197,371 net long (report date September 1), the largest position of this leg building into the rally. The composition still argues against a route explanation: Brent is not leading WTI, product cracks did not widen, and no transit count, war-risk quote, freight rate, or refining margin moved in either direction for a third straight window, which also leaves crude as the live inflation input against a 2.35% breakeven. Next check: WTI holding above $88 on September 9, and whether Brent starts leading WTI for a full week with cracks widening; crude retracing the 8% without product follow-through lowers this, and only verified transit, insurance, or freight repricing raises it. September 2 update: price fell and took it all back inside one window, with the physical side blank throughout. Brent fell 5.13% to $88.87 as Washington moved to take majority control of Venezuela's output, then the window closed with WTI +10.38% to $89.53 and Brent +8.36% to $94.22, and speculative crude longs sat at 184,401 (report date August 25), still accumulating. The composition points away from the Strait: WTI led Brent for a full window and narrowed the seaborne premium to $4.25, the reverse of what a route disruption produces, and six consecutive windows have moved on crude price alone with nothing touching transits, war-risk insurance, freight, or refining margins. Next check: WTI holding above $88 through September 9, and whether Brent starts leading WTI again or fuel prices and war-risk quotes move at all; only verified transit, insurance, or freight disruption raises this. August 29 update: a fifth consecutive lowering, again entirely on price. Brent fell 4.25% on the week to $89.70 and WTI 3.43% to $83.53, with nothing in the window touching transits, war-risk insurance, freight, or refining margins, and the escalation and enforcement branches producing nothing for a second straight window. The product and participation legs are now quiet rather than supportive, while speculative crude longs still added 4,717 to 184,401 net long (report date August 25), so positioning keeps building against a falling price. Next check: Brent under $85 with product cracks easing completes the retracement; only verified transit, war-risk-insurance, or freight disruption raises it back. August 28 update: a fourth consecutive lowering, entirely on price. Brent fell 6.16% over seven days while credit stayed firm, extending the retracement from $86.57 toward the $85 restore line, and nothing in the window touched transits, war-risk insurance, freight, or refining margins, the escalation and enforcement branches produced no new evidence after both failed last window. Next check: Brent under $85 with product cracks easing, or refining margins normalising while crude holds; verified transit or export disruption remains the only path back up. August 26 update: three consecutive lowerings, price gave back most of the escalation premium while diplomacy softened and sanctions enforcement produced nothing. Brent fell 3.92% to $87.74 and then 5.19% to $86.57 with WTI -3.28% to $82.19, after Iranian civilian leaders publicly pressed for peace and Washington detailed enforcement tools aimed at China's 1.5 million barrels a day of Iranian purchases; traded odds of WTI touching $90 this week collapsed to 2.8% from roughly 51%. The Brent premium over WTI narrowed to $4.92 as Asian refiners lined up to nearly double September purchases of US crude, which is substitution working rather than scarcity. Speculative crude longs still sit at 179,684, up 9,103 (report date August 18), so positioning is now the leg lagging price rather than leading it. Next check: whether the Brent-WTI gap keeps narrowing as September cargoes load; verified transit or export disruption reopens the premium, Brent under $85 with cracks easing lowers further. August 22 update: the last missing leg, positioning, finally fired, while the escalation leg softened. Brent rose 6.39% to $94.39 and WTI 5.49% with natural gas +3.05%, and speculative crude longs grew 9,103 to 179,684 (report date August 18), reversing three straight weeks in which price ran without spec accumulation. That completes the participation condition alongside last week's record refining margins, so the tightness now has price, product and positioning behind it. Against that, Tehran's own public framing walked back escalation, with $1.47 million across 41 converged wallets sitting on No to a US invasion before 2027 at 83.5¢, observable-data score 29, sentiment rather than evidence. The composition therefore changed even as the level rose: less war premium, more accepted physical tightness. Next check: verified transit or export disruption raises the read; Brent under $85 with product cracks easing lowers it. August 19 update: the product leg finally fired. Brent rose 6.51% to $89.00 into August 17 and added 3.61% with WTI 2.51% by August 18, but the decisive evidence was downstream: refining margin on the standard gasoline-and-diesel blend hit an all-time high, worth roughly $93 billion of windfall profit to the majors, which is tightness moving out of headlines and into fuel exactly as the standing check specified. Positioning still refuses to follow, with speculative crude longs down 8,585 to 170,581 (report date August 11), so price has now run without spec accumulation for a third week. Next check: whether pump and diesel prices carry into the energy detail of the next CPI rather than fading with the headlines, and whether war-risk insurance and freight rise with crude across three sessions. August 15 update: the week raised route risk on balances rather than force. Brent rose 5.94% to $88.52 and WTI 5.08% to $82.40 on threatened US economic pressure rather than a military event, and the IEA's August balance cut the projected 2026 surplus to roughly +410 kb/d from +2.46 mb/d, with Hormuz transits at 13 on August 14 against a pre-crisis baseline near 73 a day. The move ran without positioning behind it, speculative crude longs fell 8,585 to 170,581 (report date August 11), and against a heavy build: US commercial crude rose 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million with refineries at 96.2%, a four-week build of 25.6 million. Crude accepting higher prices for a full week rather than spiking and fading meets the participation condition, so the headline-fade read is invalidated for now. Next checks: gasoline and diesel stocks drawing while crude keeps building, which moves tightness out of headlines and into fuel prices, and 50-plus Hormuz transits a day sustained across three consecutive sessions. August 12 update: the war premium drained, then rebuilt on money terms rather than force. Brent closed -11.8% at $83.54 on August 3 and -6.2% at $79.68 on August 5 as an Iran-Oman paid-passage route took shape and Saudi Arabia routed about 7 million barrels a day west by pipeline; WTI reached $78.18 by August 8. It then re-formed: +3.15% to about $86 after Iran ruled out direct US talks, then +4.0% on the week once a reparations demand was attached to any Strait deal, with traded odds of $90 WTI in August up 13 points to 39%. Physical evidence worsened while price faded: three ADNOC vessels reported attacked, Iranian drafting of vessel bans, transits still at a trickle, against a post-OPEC record 4.1 million barrels a day from the UAE in June and speculators adding 31,227 contracts into a 184,742 net long. Washington now expects roughly 600,000 barrels a day of lost supply to persist through end-2027, with official 2026 gasoline and diesel price forecasts raised 3.7% and 5.4%. Three separate escalation events produced no sustained premium, so headlines no longer count: require published Iran-Oman toll terms, or three consecutive sessions of improving Hormuz transits, war-risk insurance, freight, and delivered fuel prices moving together. July 17 update: reported Hormuz traffic stress and firmer distillate structure raised route and product risk, but oil-on-water and softer crude front structure still reject a broad shortage call. Require current traffic plus insurer, freight, LNG, ship-owner, or product-spread proof. Lower the risk only after three improving sessions.
- hold September 11, 2026
Evidence: Brent gained 8.78% on the week to $104.30 while gasoline for immediate delivery hit new lows against next month’s price, which points at lost crude supply rather than stronger fuel demand.
- raise September 9, 2026
Evidence: About six vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on August 30 against a normal 85, the first shipping evidence sitting behind this crude rally.
- raise September 8, 2026
Evidence: Saudi Arabia said several energy sites were halted after attacks, the first physical supply fact behind a crude rally that had run on price alone, with Brent at $98.01.
- hold September 7, 2026
Evidence: WTI rose 8.02% to $91.48 and Brent 7.80% to $96.28 with speculative crude bets up 12,970 to 197,371 net long (official latest, CFTC report date September 1, 2026), while tanker traffic, war-risk insurance and refining margins showed nothing.
- raise September 2, 2026
Evidence: WTI gained 10.38% on the week to $89.53 and Brent 8.36% to $94.22, with speculative crude longs at 184,401 contracts (official latest, CFTC report dated August 25, 2026) and no shipping, insurance or freight confirmation in the available evidence.
- hold September 1, 2026
Evidence: WTI rose 4.00% on the week to $88.43 while seaborne Brent added just 0.54% to $92.68, narrowing the premium to $4.25, the reverse of the pattern a shipping-route disruption produces, and no transit, insurance or freight data moved.
- lower August 31, 2026
Evidence: Brent fell 5.13% on the week to $88.87 as Washington moved to take majority control of Venezuela’s oil output, with nothing in the window touching tanker traffic, war-risk insurance or refining margins.
- lower August 26, 2026
Evidence: Brent fell 5.19% on the week to $86.57 and its premium over WTI narrowed to $4.92 as Asian refiners lined up to nearly double September purchases of US crude, even as speculators' net bet on higher crude grew 9,103 contracts to 179,684 in the official latest positioning data, report date August 18, 2026.
- lower August 25, 2026
Evidence: Brent fell 3.92% on the week to $87.74 and WTI 3.28% to $82.19 even as Washington detailed enforcement tools aimed at China’s 1.5 million barrels a day of Iranian purchases, and the market on WTI touching $90 this week collapsed to 2.8% from roughly 51%.
- lower August 24, 2026
Evidence: Iranian civilian leaders publicly pressed for peace over the weekend and WTI traded about 1% lower into Monday, against Brent’s 4.53% weekly gain to $92.74.
- raise August 18, 2026
Evidence: Refining profit on the standard gasoline-and-diesel blend hit an all-time high with roughly $93 billion of windfall profit to oil majors, Brent added 3.61% and WTI 2.51% on the week, and Washington closed its 60-day window for a deal.
- hold August 17, 2026
Evidence: Brent added 6.51% to $89.
- lower August 14, 2026
Evidence: US commercial crude stocks rose 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million with refineries running at 96.2%, a four-week build of 25.6 million barrels, against a 4.87% weekly gain in Brent.
- raise August 12, 2026
Evidence: Washington now expects roughly 600,000 barrels a day of lost supply to persist through the end of 2027, and official 2026 gasoline and diesel price forecasts were raised 3.7% and 5.4%.
- raise August 11, 2026
Evidence: Trump attached a reparations demand to any Strait of Hormuz deal, Brent rose 4.0% on the week and the market’s odds on WTI touching $90 in August climbed 13 points to 39%.
- raise August 10, 2026
Evidence: Brent added 3.15% to about $86 after Iran ruled out direct US talks and renewed its conditions, while the UAE pumped a post-OPEC record 4.1 million barrels a day in June.
- lower August 6, 2026
Evidence: Iran and Oman agreed on a proposed shipping route through the Strait and Brent settled at $79.64, down 12% on the week and back under $80, with US officials suggesting reopening could be near.
- lower August 5, 2026
Evidence: Brent fell 6.2% on the week to $79.68 as a paid-passage arrangement took shape, while Saudi Arabia keeps about 7 million barrels a day flowing west through pipeline instead of the strait.
- hold August 4, 2026
Evidence: Brent bounced about 2.2% after a same-day Hormuz ultimatum, recovering part of Monday’s 4.
- lower August 3, 2026
Evidence: Brent closed 11.8% lower on the week at $83.54 and WTI fell 6.2% on the day after planned US strikes were called off.
- lower July 31, 2026
Evidence: Brent’s jump to nearly $91 after renewed US strikes drained back within days, leaving the US benchmark at $83.89 and the oil fund down 8% on the week.
- hold July 30, 2026
Evidence: Renewed US-Iran attacks lifted crude, but improving Strait traffic kept the physical disruption signal mixed.
- raise July 29, 2026
Evidence: The intercepted Iranian missile attack ended the Gulf lull, while live WTI jumped 5% at the Asian open and prior-close USO gained 0.91%.
- hold July 28, 2026
Evidence: Brent fell below $90 as US-Iran hostilities paused, but stronger refining margins and incomplete tanker, freight and insurance evidence prevent a clean normalization call.
- lower July 27, 2026
Evidence: The US and Iran held fire for a second night, Oman-hosted talks continued and Brent fell 8.2% below $90; constrained shipping and continuing regional attacks keep the disruption trigger partly active.
- hold July 24, 2026
Evidence: Red Sea tanker attacks briefly pushed Brent above $100, but the early US reading retreated to $97.71, USO fell 0.75%, and reported US crude and fuel inventories rose.
- raise July 23, 2026
Evidence: Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers widened the disruption to the Red Sea as live Brent reached $98.59 ; Asian currency intervention shows the shock is already spreading beyond crude.
- hold July 22, 2026
Evidence: Brent moved above $95 and reported Hormuz transits fell sharply, while the threat expanded toward the Bab el-Mandeb. USO was nearly flat at the prior close, and open interest, the number of outstanding futures contracts, continued to fall, showing weak trader commitment.
- hold July 21, 2026
Evidence: The July WTI-at-$85 contract rose 24 points to 87.5% on about $169,554 of 24-hour volume and $100,694 of liquidity, but USO fell 0.45%, near-dated oil spreads softened and open interest declined. Product and route stress remain credible; a lasting crude shortage is still unconfirmed.
- hold July 20, 2026
Evidence: Brent briefly exceeded $90 but returned to $87.94 after diplomatic contact; oil spreads softened, and the July WTI-at-$90 contract fell 22.6 points to 31.4% on $127,115 of 24-hour volume, although its $21,152 liquidity limits precision.
- hold July 17, 2026
Evidence: Brent rose to $85.50 and LNG, shipping restrictions and refining margins worsened, but heavy oil-on-water, softer front spreads and slower volume still argue against a confirmed broad shortage.
- raise July 16, 2026
Evidence: A US strike near Iran’s export terminal, India’s seafarer restriction and higher Asian LNG add physical and route-cost evidence. Forty-one high-scored wallets have $1.48 million behind no US invasion, but the market’s low observable-data score makes that a sentiment restraint, not proof that disruption will fade.
- hold July 15, 2026
Evidence: Trump withdrew the proposed 20% Hormuz charge, yet US strikes, the blockade and limited vessel transits continued; USO fell 1.81% at the prior close but remains 6.15% higher over seven days.
- raise July 14, 2026
Evidence: Renewed strikes and blockade reporting now coincide with Brent at $87.01, up 4.5%, and USO up 5.28% at the prior close. Price confirmation is stronger than yesterday, but the physical-shortage trigger remains partial because no fresh cited transit, freight or insurance series is present.
- raise July 13, 2026
Evidence: The fresh blockade and 20% traffic-charge language, alongside USO +1.21% at the prior close, reverse part of July 10’s confidence reduction. The trigger is only partial: no fresh transit, freight or insurance proof exists, while 37 high-scored wallets deployed $1.15 million behind no US invasion; its observable-data score of 33 makes that sentiment, not confirmation.
- lower July 10, 2026
Hold Medium; lasting-shortage confidence lower. The shortage trigger did not fire: clashes and impaired traffic were offset by rising June stocks and continuing talks.
- raise July 9, 2026
Raise near-term disruption watch: US struck again; Iran responded; traffic headlines worsened. Smart-money flow still leans No on full US invasion with 32 wallets and about $1.07M deployed.
- raise July 8, 2026
Hold shortage conviction, raise watch urgency: ceasefire broke, but WTI $120 July is only 0.9% Yes and smart wallets put $1.07M behind no US invasion.
- raise July 7, 2026
Raise tail-risk watch, not base-case panic: ship attacks and the WTI above-$69 market at 95.5% say the premium is back;
- lower July 6, 2026
Lower immediate shock conviction: July WTI $85 odds are 6.5%, down 18 pts on the week; Saudi pricing and export normalization confirm relief.
- hold July 5, 2026
JPM bearish flip (from $200 call) + OPEC+ +188k b/d Aug hike. IEA: 3.7M b/d surplus. Hormuz still 26% of normal throughput.
Related claims
| Opened | Claim | Status |
|---|---|---|
| October 14, 2026 | At resolution, "Iran leadership change by November 30?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 14, 2026 | At resolution, "Iran leadership change by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 14, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-10-14 printed hot versus the Cleveland Fed nowcast; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| October 12, 2026 | At resolution, "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 12, 2026 | Brent Crude closes above 105.00 on 2026-10-16 (settled by stored daily closes). | awaiting outcome |
| October 12, 2026 | At resolution, "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 12, 2026 | At resolution, "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "Iran leadership change by October 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | correct |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 11, 2026 | At resolution, "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| October 9, 2026 | WTI Crude closes below 95.00 on 2026-10-16 (settled by stored daily closes). | awaiting outcome |
| October 8, 2026 | Brent Crude closes above 100.00 on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes). | awaiting outcome |
| October 7, 2026 | Brent Crude closes below 105.00 on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes). | awaiting outcome |
| October 2, 2026 | Brent Crude closes below 105.00 on 2026-10-08 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 14, 2026 | At resolution, "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| September 11, 2026 | Brent Crude closes above 100.00 on 2026-09-18 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 9, 2026 | Brent Crude closes above 100.00 on 2026-09-16 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 8, 2026 | Brent Crude closes above 95.00 on 2026-09-16 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 7, 2026 | Brent Crude closes above 95.00 on 2026-09-14 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 2, 2026 | WTI Crude closes above 88.00 on 2026-09-09 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| July 25, 2026 | Raise if traffic, insurance, freight, refined products and strong market participation worsen together. Lower after three improving sessions across those measures. | qualitative review |
| July 22, 2026 | At resolution, "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| July 11, 2026 | Raise only if transits, insurance, freight, LNG routing, product cracks or inventories show persistent loss. Lower further after several sessions of normalized flow and easing products. | qualitative review |
| July 11, 2026 | At resolution, "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?" settles NO, matching the map's recorded lean. | correct |
| July 10, 2026 | At resolution, "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| July 9, 2026 | At resolution, "Iran nuclear test before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| July 5, 2026 | At resolution, "Iran Nuke before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets. | awaiting outcome |
| July 4, 2026 | At resolution, "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?" settles NO, matching the map's recorded lean. | no verdict |
| July 4, 2026 | Shock trigger partially invalidated this week. Flip back higher only if products, cracks, freight, insurance, AIS/SAR, or route fees show real physical stress. | qualitative review |