Long-end funding pressure

Conviction over time

Two snapshots are needed.

Event timeline

1. retire September 30, 2026

   September 30, 2026: retire orphan theme-state row, already invalidated and has no H2 section; long-end read sits under Fed / Inflation / Rates.

   daily brief · triggers: Not yet triggered

2. lower August 27, 2026

   Evidence: The 30-year yield closed August 25 at 5.17%, under both the 5.25% mid-month level and the month’s 5.31% high, while the 2-year eased to 4.17% and the 10-year-minus-2-year gap flattened 3 basis points to 47.

   daily brief · triggers: Invalidated · next check: Next check: Whether the 30-year stays below 5.25% through the September 4 employment report rather than backing up on the next long-dated auction.

3. raise August 19, 2026

   Evidence: The 30-year yield rose 7 basis points on the week to 5.31%, its highest since 2007, while the 2-year fell 3 basis points and the inflation rate implied by 10-year Treasury prices held at 2.27%.

   daily brief · triggers: Fired · next check: Next check: Whether the 30-year holds above 5.25% through the August 26 core PCE reading rather than slipping back once the oil headlines fade.

4. raise August 18, 2026

   Evidence: The 30-year yield touched 5.29%, the highest since 2007, and closed the week 6bp higher while the 2-year fell 2bp and the Fed's own rate held at 3.63%.

   daily brief · triggers: Fired · next check: Next check: Whether the 30-year holds above 5.25% through Wednesday's July FOMC minutes and into the August 26 core PCE release.

5. raise August 14, 2026

   Evidence: The 30-year auction cleared at 5.216% and the 30-year yield finished the week 2 basis points higher while the two-year fell 5, with both retail sales and producer prices negative for July.

   daily brief · triggers: Partial · next check: Next check: Whether the 30-year yield drops below 5.10% on the next weak US data print instead of drifting up again.

6. raise August 13, 2026

   Evidence: The 30-year yield rose 7 basis points on the week to 5.24% and the 10-year to 4.70%, while the inflation rate implied by 10-year Treasury prices was unchanged at 2.26%.

   daily brief · triggers: Partial · next check: Next check: Whether the 30-year holds above 5.20% through Friday’s retail sales report rather than slipping back once the oil headlines fade.

7. raise August 5, 2026

   Evidence: The 30-year yield rose 14 basis points to 5.23% and the 10-year 9 basis points to 4.70% in a week in which oil fell 6% and the extra interest weaker borrowers pay narrowed to 2.78 percentage points.

   daily brief · triggers: Partial · next check: Next check: The August 12–13 ten- and thirty-year auctions, where soft demand would push the far end higher again.

8. raise July 23, 2026

   Evidence: The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.16% as AI-related corporate borrowing competes with a much larger Treasury market, strengthening the case for maturity-specific pressure without proving a curve-wide break.

   daily brief · triggers: Partial · next check: Next check: Weak long-bond auctions or persistently higher corporate borrowing costs would confirm the move; solid demand at the August 5 refunding cycle would weaken it.

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