Official Currency Defense / Yen-Funded Leverage
Tracks whether official yen buying and BOJ policy can hold the carry trade, and whether that defense is also a defense of the US Treasury market through Japan's holdings.
October 10 update: held on the weekly reconciliation. The dollar rose 0.33% to 158.25 yen, still below the 160 flip line, while speculators added 5,202 contracts to yen bets, a partial rebuild after recent trimming. Japan equities closed one-year highs on October 5 and 6 (to $99.32). No official intervention signal appeared. Next check: the dollar rising above 160 yen is the flip condition that re-tests official defense. October 7 update: held on the weekly reconciliation. The dollar sits near 157.83 yen, up modestly from 157.44 in the prior window, while speculators trimmed yen bets further, extending the unwind of the carry fuel this row tracks rather than rebuilding it. The exporter channel kept dominating price: the Japan equity fund closed one-year highs on October 2, 5 and 6 (to $99.32) as the broad dollar printed a one-year-high 102.17. No official intervention signal appeared. Next check: the dollar rising above 160 yen is the weekly flip condition that would re-test official defense; a renewed rebuild of speculative yen shorts above the 40,000 August level would re-arm the carry leg. September 30 update: held after the prior lower, with the dollar squeeze extending rather than reversing. Speculative yen futures net longs fell another 49,267 contracts, from 120,424 to 71,157 (official latest, CFTC report date September 22), while the US 30-year printed successive one-year highs at 5.47% then 5.59% and the rate gap kept favouring dollars. EUR/USD closed 1.13 on September 29, the lowest close in a year, the dollar index rose about 0.96% on the week, and USD/JPY sat near 157.44, still above the 157 line the deltas flag as confirming retreat from yen strength, with no credit or volatility transmission appearing in the measured block. The carry-unwind fuel this row tracks remains spent; the new evidence is dollar strength and European FX weakness rather than a renewed yen short build. Next check: whether the dollar still buys more than 157 yen after the September 30 Core PCE report; USD/JPY back below 150 with a rebuilt net short would restart the carry case, and a further EUR/USD break with no official defense language keeps the dollar-squeeze read. September 26 update: lowered, because the fuel this row tracks was spent before the event and the rate gap kept widening. The speculative crowd had already closed out the big yen short, sitting 12,575 contracts net long (report date September 8), while US short-term rates kept pulling money toward dollars: the 2-year closed a one-year-high 4.67% on September 15 and 4.87% on September 24, with effective fed funds at 3.88% after the Fed's quarter-point hike. A hawkish September 18 outcome therefore had little forced buying left to trigger, and the carry differential moved against the yen rather than toward it. This merge's evidence carries no read on the decision itself or on USD/JPY a session later, and the measured week of September 20-26 flags no USD/JPY or volatility extreme, so transmission stays absent for a fifth window. Next check: score the delta's condition from stored closes, whether the yen was still stronger a full session after the September 18 decision or handed the move straight back; USD/JPY below 150 with high yield past 290bp still confirms a genuine funding-cost change, and a move back above 158 with the net short rebuilding restarts the carry build. September 16 update: the position flipped outright two days before the decision. The speculative crowd went from 95,781 contracts net short yen to 12,575 net long (report date September 8), which changes what a hawkish September 18 Bank of Japan outcome does, it pays existing length rather than forcing a cover, so the forced-buying risk this row tracks is spent while event risk around the meeting is not. The exporter channel did not object: Japan equities closed $98.56 on September 11, the highest in a year, with USD/JPY at 153.55 after a 1.69% five-session fall, itself bigger than all but 11 of the last 120. Transmission is still absent, with no credit widening in the window. Next check: the VIX holding below 20 through September 18, which keeps this positioning rather than stress; USD/JPY below 150 on a hawkish decision with high yield past 290bp confirms a genuine funding-cost change, and a giveback above 158 with the short rebuilding restarts the carry build. September 12 update: the unwind finished inside the position data rather than in the price of risk. USD/JPY closed 153.27 on September 9, the lowest in 147 sessions, and ended the week at 153.55 after a 1.69% five-session move, while the speculative crowd went from 95,781 contracts net short to 12,575 net long, a full flip, not a trim, which means the accounts that would have been forced to buy yen have already bought. Transmission never arrived: high yield held near 270bp and financial conditions were unchanged at -0.56, and although the VIX rose 3.22 points in five sessions to 17.54, it stayed well under 20, so three consecutive windows of extremes in the largest funding currency produced no credit signature at all. The exporter channel did not object either, with Japan equities closing at a one-year-high $98.56 on September 11. Next check: the September 18 Bank of Japan decision, a hawkish outcome pushing USD/JPY below 150 with high yield past 290bp re-raises this; a giveback above 158 with the short rebuilding restarts the carry build and marks the whole leg a flush. September 9 update: the carry unwind extended for a third straight window and the transmission legs stayed silent. USD/JPY closed 154.46, 153.85, and 153.27 on September 7, 8, and 9, the lowest in 147 sessions, roughly a six-month low, with the September 7 five-session move of -3.31% larger than all but four of the previous 120, and speculative yen net shorts still 95,781 contracts after building 32,989 into the rally (report date September 1), so the position that is losing money has not been cut. Nothing confirmed it: the VIX sat near its 14.03 September 4 close, the lowest in 174 sessions, and high yield held 265bp, so three consecutive extremes in the largest funding currency have produced no credit or volatility signature at all. The 152 confirmation level is now about a point away. Next check: the Bank of Japan's September 18 decision, which either keeps yen borrowing cheap or extends the move; USD/JPY below 152 with high yield past 290bp confirms a genuine funding-cost change, the VIX holding below 16 through September 11 keeps this positioning, and a retrace above 158 with shorts rebuilding marks the whole leg a flush. September 5 update: the clearest conviction move of the week, and it came from the funding channel rather than from Tokyo. USD/JPY fell 2.42% to 156.22, touching 155.60 on September 3, the lowest close in 138 sessions and a five-session move of z -2.6, on a reported carry unwind, with no official action involved, and speculative yen net shorts built 32,989 to 95,781 contracts into the rally (report date September 1), so the position grew as it lost money rather than covering. Transmission did not follow: the VIX fell to 14.53 with a 14.03 close on September 4, the lowest in 174 sessions, and high yield sat at 265bp, so a 2.4% move in the largest funding currency produced no credit or volatility signature at all. Next check: USD/JPY below 152 with high yield past 290bp confirms a genuine funding-cost change, and the VIX holding below 16 through September 11 keeps this a positioning story; a retrace above 158 with shorts rebuilding marks the week as a flush. August 29 update: the level-defense condition fired. USD/JPY rose 0.74% to 160.04 with no official response, against a dollar index +0.85% and USD/CNH +0.16%, while speculative yen shorts were cut 10,316 to 62,792 and euro shorts built 26,729 to 53,872 (report date August 25), the yen weakened as specs covered, which points at rate differentials and real-money flow rather than fresh short-selling. Both channels stayed live in opposite directions and the earnings channel dominated: Japan equities led the majors at +1.16%, the VIX fell to 14.43, and no intervention signature appeared. Next check: USD/JPY through 162, or any official response, flips the dominant channel from exporter tailwind to unwind risk; the monthly cross-border securities data remains the direct read on repatriation. August 22 update: the currency stayed still and the equity channel did the moving. USD/JPY fell 0.18% to 158.94, still under 160 and still without an official response, while Japan equities dropped 3.02%, the worst developed block, and speculative yen shorts were cut 12,436 to 52,476 net short (report date August 18), the first meaningful reduction since the rebuild began. Both channels are live in opposite directions: a firmer yen squeezes carry funding while cutting the translated value of exporters' overseas earnings. With spot barely moving and the index down 3.02%, this window reads as short-covering plus equity de-rating rather than a macro yen move or genuine repatriation. Next check: USD/JPY under 155 with Japanese equities still falling would mark real repatriation; the monthly cross-border securities data remains the direct read. August 19 update: the pressure moved onto the Japanese leg. Japan's 2-year yield reached a 31-year high while USD/JPY was unchanged at 159.56, a rising domestic yield with no currency reaction, which turns this into a flow question rather than an FX-level one. Tokyo again let the drift toward ¥160 run with no official answer, and speculative yen shorts sit at 40,040 net short (report date August 11). The Treasury link is why it matters: Japanese institutions earning a 31-year-high yield at home have less reason to hold long US paper at a 5.31% 30-year. Next check: the next monthly Japanese cross-border securities data, for whether domestic institutions turned net sellers of foreign bonds. August 15 update: the defense lapsed and the leverage started back. USD/JPY rose 0.89% to ¥159.30, back within a point of the level that provoked joint intervention, with no official response, and speculative yen shorts rebuilt 6,911 to 40,040 net short (report date August 11) after collapsing from 171,320. The weaker yen flattered exporters, Japan equities were the week's second-best major line at +1.53%, so the earnings channel dominated price while the funding channel quietly re-accumulated. For the map the leverage channel is the one that matters, because it builds slowly, unwinds violently, and has no self-correcting mechanism. Next check: renewed official buying before ¥160 or an actual BOJ rate move rather than rhetoric; absent either, the July operation prices as a one-off. August 12 update: the first coordinated US-Japan yen buying in nearly three decades moved the level, not the trend. USD/JPY fell 3.78% to 157.40 in the week to August 1 on an estimated $87 billion of BOJ buying, alongside a hawkish 1% hold, an upgraded economic assessment, and one dissent for an immediate hike. It has round-tripped since: 155.23 on August 3, 157.93 on August 4, 157.74 on August 8, 159.24 on August 11, and 159.06 on August 12, giving back roughly half the intervention gain with no fresh official response. The crowding that made this dangerous is largely defused, with speculative yen shorts collapsing from 171,320 to 46,951 contracts (CFTC report date August 4). The theme survives because of the Treasury link: Washington bought a foreign currency partly to stop the largest overseas holder of US government debt from selling those bonds to fund its own defense, which neither the carry theme nor the bond-supply theme covers alone.
What would move it
▲ Raise
- A further leg of yen strength coincides with widening credit spreads or falling equity breadth in the same sessions.
- The BOJ follows the intervention with an actual rate move rather than verbal support.
- Japanese official or pension flow shows visible JGB repatriation, or Japan sells Treasuries to fund defense spending.
▼ Lower
- USD/JPY moves back above 160 without an official response, pricing the defense as a one-off rather than standing policy.
- The pair stabilizes above 160 and the speculative short rebuilds without stress appearing anywhere else.
Live triggers
- Next check: Whether the dollar still buys more than 157 yen after Wednesday’s PCE report, which would confirm the retreat from yen strength.partial
Conviction over time
Event timeline
- measured October 13, 2026
USD/CNH 6.69 (2026-10-13): the lowest close in the 24 sessions on record.
- measured October 13, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-13): the highest close in about nine months (211 sessions).
- measured October 12, 2026
Dollar Index (DXY) 102.58 (2026-10-12): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 12, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-09): the highest close in about nine months (210 sessions).
- measured October 11, 2026
USD/CNH 6.69 (2026-10-09): the lowest close in the 22 sessions on record.
- measured October 11, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-08): the highest close in about nine months (209 sessions).
- measured October 9, 2026
USD/CNH 6.69 (2026-10-09): the lowest close in the 22 sessions on record.
- measured October 9, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-08): the highest close in about nine months (209 sessions).
- measured October 8, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-08): the highest close in about nine months (209 sessions).
- measured October 7, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-07): the highest close in about nine months (208 sessions).
- measured October 7, 2026
30Y Yield 5.67% (2026-10-07): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 6, 2026
Japan (EWJ) $99.32 (2026-10-06): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 6, 2026
S&P 500 (SPY) $779.09 (2026-10-06): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 5, 2026
30Y Yield 5.66% (2026-10-05): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 5, 2026
Japan (EWJ) $99.30 (2026-10-05): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 4, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-02): the highest close in about nine months (205 sessions).
- measured October 4, 2026
Japan (EWJ) $98.92 (2026-10-02): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 2, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-01): the highest close in about nine months (204 sessions).
- measured October 2, 2026
Japan (EWJ) $98.92 (2026-10-02): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 1, 2026
Dollar Index (DXY) 102.10 (2026-10-01): the highest close in a year.
- measured October 1, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-10-01): the highest close in about nine months (204 sessions).
- retire September 30, 2026
September 30, 2026: retire orphan theme-state row, no matching H2 slug; live read sits under Official Currency Defense / Yen-Funded Leverage.
- retire September 30, 2026
September 30, 2026: retire orphan theme-state row, no matching H2 slug; live read sits under Official Currency Defense / Yen-Funded Leverage.
- retire September 30, 2026
September 30, 2026: retire orphan theme-state row, dormant candidate never gained an H2 section; Treasury channel sits under Official Currency Defense / Yen-Funded Leverage.
- measured September 30, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-09-30): the highest close in about nine months (203 sessions).
- measured September 30, 2026
30Y Yield 5.64% (2026-09-30): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 29, 2026
Fed Funds (EFFR) 3.88% (2026-09-28): the highest close in about nine months (201 sessions).
- measured September 29, 2026
30Y Yield 5.49% (2026-09-25): the highest close in a year.
- hold September 29, 2026
Evidence: EUR/USD closed at 1.13 on 2026-09-29, the lowest close in a year, while the dollar index rose 0.96% on the week and USD/JPY sits near 157.44.
- measured September 28, 2026
30Y Yield 5.47% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 28, 2026
2Y Yield 4.87% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- retire September 28, 2026
No longer present in the canonical standing theme map.
- retire September 28, 2026
No longer present in the canonical standing theme map.
- measured September 27, 2026
30Y Yield 5.47% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 27, 2026
2Y Yield 4.87% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 26, 2026
30Y Yield 5.47% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 26, 2026
2Y Yield 4.87% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- lower September 26, 2026
Evidence: In yen futures the net long position decreased by 49,267, from 120,424 to 71,157 contracts (official latest, CFTC report date September 22, 2026), while 30Y Yield 5.47% (2026-09-24): the highest close in a year.
- retire September 26, 2026
No longer present in the canonical standing theme map.
- retire September 26, 2026
No longer present in the canonical standing theme map.
- measured September 17, 2026
Bear flattening: Short-term Treasury yields rose faster than long-term ones: the market is repricing the next few Fed meetings, not long-run inflation. (2Y +28bp in five sessions, 2s10s -13bp in five sessions)
- measured September 17, 2026
2Y Yield 4.67% (2026-09-15): the highest close in a year.
- lower September 17, 2026
Evidence: Speculators have already closed out the big bet against the yen even as US short-term rates keep pulling money toward dollars, with the 2Y Yield 4.67% (2026-09-15) the highest close in a year.
- measured September 16, 2026
Bear flattening: Short-term Treasury yields rose faster than long-term ones: the market is repricing the next few Fed meetings, not long-run inflation. (2Y +28bp in five sessions, 2s10s -8bp in five sessions)
- measured September 16, 2026
2Y Yield 4.65% (2026-09-14): the highest close in a year.
- retire September 16, 2026
No longer present in the canonical standing theme map.
- retire September 16, 2026
No longer present in the canonical standing theme map.
- measured September 15, 2026
Bear flattening: Short-term Treasury yields rose faster than long-term ones: the market is repricing the next few Fed meetings, not long-run inflation. (2Y +29bp in five sessions, 2s10s -9bp in five sessions)
- measured September 15, 2026
2Y Yield 4.63% (2026-09-11): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 14, 2026
2Y Yield 4.56% (2026-09-10): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 14, 2026
Japan (EWJ) $98.56 (2026-09-11): the highest close in a year.
- raise September 14, 2026
Evidence: Japan (EWJ) $98.56 (2026-09-11): the highest close in a year, even as speculators flipped from net short 95,781 to net long 12,575 yen contracts (official latest, CFTC report dated September 8, 2026).
- lower September 12, 2026
Curated map conviction changed from High, raised; USD/JPY at 153.27 is the lowest close in 147 sessions with yen shorts still 95,781 contracts and no credit or volatility answer to Medium, lowered; the yen rallied a third week and the speculative short flipped from 95,781 contracts to a 12,575-contract net long, so the forced-buying risk this row tracks has largely been spent. September 12 update: the unwind finished inside the position data rather than in the price of risk. USD/JPY closed 153.27 on September 9, the lowest in 147 sessions, and ended the week at 153.55 after a 1.69% five-session move, while the speculative crowd went from 95,781 contracts net short to 12,575 net long, a full flip, not a trim, which means the accounts that would have been forced to buy yen have already bought. Transmission never arrived: high yield held near 270bp and financial conditions were unchanged at -0.56, and although the VIX rose 3.22 points in five sessions to 17.54, it stayed well under 20, so three consecutive windows of extremes in the largest funding currency produced no credit signature at all. The exporter channel did not object either, with Japan equities closing at a one-year-high $98.56 on September 11. Next check: the September 18 Bank of Japan decision, a hawkish outcome pushing USD/JPY below 150 with high yield past 290bp re-raises this; a giveback above 158 with the short rebuilding restarts the carry build and marks the whole leg a flush. September 9 update: the carry unwind extended for a third straight window and the transmission legs stayed silent. USD/JPY closed 154.46, 153.85, and 153.27 on September 7, 8, and 9, the lowest in 147 sessions, roughly a six-month low, with the September 7 five-session move of -3.31% larger than all but four of the previous 120, and speculative yen net shorts still 95,781 contracts after building 32,989 into the rally (report date September 1), so the position that is losing money has not been cut. Nothing confirmed it: the VIX sat near its 14.03 September 4 close, the lowest in 174 sessions, and high yield held 265bp, so three consecutive extremes in the largest funding currency have produced no credit or volatility signature at all. The 152 confirmation level is now about a point away. Next check: the Bank of Japan's September 18 decision, which either keeps yen borrowing cheap or extends the move; USD/JPY below 152 with high yield past 290bp confirms a genuine funding-cost change, the VIX holding below 16 through September 11 keeps this positioning, and a retrace above 158 with shorts rebuilding marks the whole leg a flush. September 5 update: the clearest conviction move of the week, and it came from the funding channel rather than from Tokyo. USD/JPY fell 2.42% to 156.22, touching 155.60 on September 3, the lowest close in 138 sessions and a five-session move of z -2.6, on a reported carry unwind, with no official action involved, and speculative yen net shorts built 32,989 to 95,781 contracts into the rally (report date September 1), so the position grew as it lost money rather than covering. Transmission did not follow: the VIX fell to 14.53 with a 14.03 close on September 4, the lowest in 174 sessions, and high yield sat at 265bp, so a 2.4% move in the largest funding currency produced no credit or volatility signature at all. Next check: USD/JPY below 152 with high yield past 290bp confirms a genuine funding-cost change, and the VIX holding below 16 through September 11 keeps this a positioning story; a retrace above 158 with shorts rebuilding marks the week as a flush. August 29 update: the level-defense condition fired. USD/JPY rose 0.74% to 160.04 with no official response, against a dollar index +0.85% and USD/CNH +0.16%, while speculative yen shorts were cut 10,316 to 62,792 and euro shorts built 26,729 to 53,872 (report date August 25), the yen weakened as specs covered, which points at rate differentials and real-money flow rather than fresh short-selling. Both channels stayed live in opposite directions and the earnings channel dominated: Japan equities led the majors at +1.16%, the VIX fell to 14.43, and no intervention signature appeared. Next check: USD/JPY through 162, or any official response, flips the dominant channel from exporter tailwind to unwind risk; the monthly cross-border securities data remains the direct read on repatriation. August 22 update: the currency stayed still and the equity channel did the moving. USD/JPY fell 0.18% to 158.94, still under 160 and still without an official response, while Japan equities dropped 3.02%, the worst developed block, and speculative yen shorts were cut 12,436 to 52,476 net short (report date August 18), the first meaningful reduction since the rebuild began. Both channels are live in opposite directions: a firmer yen squeezes carry funding while cutting the translated value of exporters' overseas earnings. With spot barely moving and the index down 3.02%, this window reads as short-covering plus equity de-rating rather than a macro yen move or genuine repatriation. Next check: USD/JPY under 155 with Japanese equities still falling would mark real repatriation; the monthly cross-border securities data remains the direct read. August 19 update: the pressure moved onto the Japanese leg. Japan's 2-year yield reached a 31-year high while USD/JPY was unchanged at 159.56, a rising domestic yield with no currency reaction, which turns this into a flow question rather than an FX-level one. Tokyo again let the drift toward ¥160 run with no official answer, and speculative yen shorts sit at 40,040 net short (report date August 11). The Treasury link is why it matters: Japanese institutions earning a 31-year-high yield at home have less reason to hold long US paper at a 5.31% 30-year. Next check: the next monthly Japanese cross-border securities data, for whether domestic institutions turned net sellers of foreign bonds. August 15 update: the defense lapsed and the leverage started back. USD/JPY rose 0.89% to ¥159.30, back within a point of the level that provoked joint intervention, with no official response, and speculative yen shorts rebuilt 6,911 to 40,040 net short (report date August 11) after collapsing from 171,320. The weaker yen flattered exporters, Japan equities were the week's second-best major line at +1.53%, so the earnings channel dominated price while the funding channel quietly re-accumulated. For the map the leverage channel is the one that matters, because it builds slowly, unwinds violently, and has no self-correcting mechanism. Next check: renewed official buying before ¥160 or an actual BOJ rate move rather than rhetoric; absent either, the July operation prices as a one-off. August 12 update: the first coordinated US-Japan yen buying in nearly three decades moved the level, not the trend. USD/JPY fell 3.78% to 157.40 in the week to August 1 on an estimated $87 billion of BOJ buying, alongside a hawkish 1% hold, an upgraded economic assessment, and one dissent for an immediate hike. It has round-tripped since: 155.23 on August 3, 157.93 on August 4, 157.74 on August 8, 159.24 on August 11, and 159.06 on August 12, giving back roughly half the intervention gain with no fresh official response. The crowding that made this dangerous is largely defused, with speculative yen shorts collapsing from 171,320 to 46,951 contracts (CFTC report date August 4). The theme survives because of the Treasury link: Washington bought a foreign currency partly to stop the largest overseas holder of US government debt from selling those bonds to fund its own defense, which neither the carry theme nor the bond-supply theme covers alone.
- measured September 12, 2026
2Y Yield 4.56% (2026-09-10): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 12, 2026
Japan (EWJ) $98.56 (2026-09-11): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 11, 2026
2Y Yield 4.43% (2026-09-09): the highest close in a year.
- raise September 11, 2026
Evidence: USD/JPY 153.56: down 1.69% in five sessions, bigger than all but 11 of the last 120 five-session moves, while speculators increased their net short yen position, a bet the yen falls, by 32,989 contracts to 95,781 (official latest, CFTC report date September 1, 2026).
- measured September 10, 2026
2Y Yield 4.39% (2026-09-08): the highest close in a year.
- measured September 9, 2026
USD/JPY 153.27 (2026-09-09): the lowest close in about six months (147 sessions).
- raise September 9, 2026
Evidence: USD/JPY 153.27 (2026-09-09): the lowest close in about six months (147 sessions).
- measured September 8, 2026
USD/JPY 153.85 (2026-09-08): the lowest close in about six months (146 sessions).
- raise September 8, 2026
Evidence: USD/JPY 153.85: down 3.19% in five sessions, bigger than all but 4 of the last 120 five-session moves (stored daily closes), against speculators 95,781 contracts net short the yen (official latest, CFTC report dated September 1, 2026).
- measured September 7, 2026
USD/JPY 154.46 (2026-09-07): the lowest close in about six months (141 sessions).
- raise September 7, 2026
Evidence: From stored daily closes, USD/JPY 154.46: down 3.31% in five sessions, bigger than all but 4 of the last 120 five-session moves , while speculators cut bets against a falling yen by 32,989 contracts to 95,781 net short (official latest, CFTC report date September 1, 2026).
- raise September 4, 2026
Evidence: Stored daily closes show “USD/JPY 156.13: 5-session change -2.49% (z -2.7 vs the prior 120 sessions),” with yen futures above their 200-day average on rising open positions and speculators cutting their short yen bet to 62,792 contracts (official latest, CFTC report date August 25, 2026).
- lower September 3, 2026
Evidence: USD/JPY 155.60: 5-session change -2.33% (z -2.5 vs the prior 120 sessions).
- lower August 13, 2026
Evidence: The yen has slid to 159.29 per dollar even though speculators cut their bets against it by 124,369 contracts to a 46,951 net short in the CFTC’s official latest report (report date August 4, 2026).
- lower August 12, 2026
Evidence: The dollar is back at ¥159.06, up 0.84% on the week, after the yen gave up about half of the gain it made when authorities bought it in July.
- lower August 11, 2026
Evidence: The dollar is back at ¥159.24, up 1.1% on the week and near its level before July’s joint intervention, while speculators cut bets against the yen by 124,369 contracts to 46,951 in the official latest CFTC report (report date August 4, 2026).
- lower August 7, 2026
Evidence: The yen sits near 157.78 per dollar against Monday’s strong point of 155.23, giving back close to half the move that an estimated $87 billion of Bank of Japan buying bought over two days.
- raise August 5, 2026
Evidence: The dollar fell 3.89% to ¥157.48 in a week after the first coordinated US–Japan yen buying in nearly three decades, with speculators still holding 171,320 contracts against the yen in the official latest CFTC report (report date July 28, 2026).
- candidate August 4, 2026
Evidence: The dollar climbed 0.5% to ¥157.93 two sessions after the joint operation, with the Bank of Japan leaving rates alone and speculative yen shorts still at 171,320 contracts (official latest, CFTC report date July 28, 2026).
- raise August 3, 2026
Evidence: The dollar lost 4.35% against the yen in a week while the official latest COT report (CFTC report date 2026-07-28) still showed 171,320 contracts betting on a weaker yen.
- candidate August 3, 2026
Evidence: Washington bought a foreign currency partly to stop the largest overseas holder of US government debt from selling those bonds to fund its own defense, something neither the speculative-yen nor the bond-supply theme covers on its own.
- hold July 30, 2026
Evidence: USD/JPY fell 2.46% while the official latest July 21 COT (CFTC report date: 2026-07-21) report still showed a large speculative yen short.
- candidate July 29, 2026
Evidence: Official-latest CFTC data for July 21 show 157,406 net yen shorts, USD/JPY closed at 163.77, and the claimed margin-debt link describes a funding risk distinct from domestic Japanese repatriation.
Related claims
| Opened | Claim | Status |
|---|---|---|
| October 14, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-10-14 printed hot versus the Cleveland Fed nowcast; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| October 14, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-10-14 printed hot versus the Cleveland Fed nowcast; the map said S&P 500 (SPY) down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| October 14, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-10-14 printed hot versus the Cleveland Fed nowcast; the map said 2Y Yield up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | awaiting outcome |
| October 6, 2026 | 3-Year Note Auction 2026-10-06 printed hot versus the prior same-term auctions; the map said S&P 500 (SPY) down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | incorrect |
| September 28, 2026 | Retail Sales 2026-09-28 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 16, 2026 | Retail Sales 2026-09-16 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 14, 2026 | VIX closes below 20.00 on 2026-09-18 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 14, 2026 | U.S. PPI 2026-09-14 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said 2Y Yield up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 14, 2026 | U.S. PPI 2026-09-14 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 10, 2026 | U.S. PPI 2026-09-10 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said 2Y Yield up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 10, 2026 | U.S. PPI 2026-09-10 printed hot versus a fixed threshold; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 8, 2026 | VIX closes below 20.00 on 2026-09-16 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| September 7, 2026 | Dollar Index (DXY) closes below 99.00 on 2026-09-11 (settled by stored daily closes). | incorrect |
| September 4, 2026 | VIX closes below 16.00 on 2026-09-11 (settled by stored daily closes). | correct |
| August 12, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-08-12 printed cool; the map said 2Y Yield down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| August 12, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-08-12 printed cool; the map said S&P 500 (SPY) up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | correct |
| August 12, 2026 | U.S. CPI 2026-08-12 printed cool; the map said Dollar Index (DXY) down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes). | incorrect |
| August 3, 2026 | 30Y Yield closes above 5.21% on 2026-08-12 (settled by stored daily closes). | excluded |