July 24, 2026 · Decision research
Uranium Nuclear Renaissance
Finding
Both layers of the thesis now have *stronger* evidence than the upstream sweep assumed. The near-term uranium squeeze is FIRMING (Kazatomprom just cut 10% in 2026 while utilities have undercontracted for 13 consecutive years), and the "long-term SMR/big-tech vision is mostly narrative" framing is the single weakest assumption in the sweep - three SMR projects (TerraPower, NuScale, X-energy) have moved past narrative into NRC clearance and breaking ground. Action upgrades from "consider" to "act" on this update.
What changed
(1) TerraPower officially started construction on Kemmerer Unit 1 on April 23, 2026 - the first utility-scale advanced reactor in the US, 345 MW Natrium design boostable to 500 MW with molten-salt thermal storage (). (2) NuScale's 77 MWe SMR received NRC Standard Design Approval on May 29, 2025 - the *only* SMR with full NRC design approval - on track for deployment by 2030 (). (3) The NRC issued an Environmental Assessment with Finding of No Significant Impact for X-energy's Xe-100 / Dow Seadrift (TX) project on May 18, 2026 (). (4) Kazatomprom announced on August 22, 2025 that 20
Decision
Move from "consider" to "act" on uranium exposure (physical U3O8, equity in CCJ/KAP, royalty/developer exposure). The Thesis's near-term squeeze is now best-supported, not just plausible: spot U3O8 at $85.85/lb on July 23, 2026 (), long-term contracts at $90/lb by Q1 2026 (), 12-month forward at $90.60/lb. The thesis's long-term layer is no longer "narrative with delivery in 2030s" - it is "regulatory-cleared, breaking ground, with first-of-a-kind milestones already past" - though first commercial operation remains ~2030. The two largest risks (term-price action and SMR slippage) have no
Watch next
(a) Spot sustained below $70/lb for 2 consecutive quarters - would imply financial buyers (Yellow Cake, Sprott Physical Uranium) and utilities are no longer competing for pounds; (b) Kazatomprom reversing course and signaling a return to "100% levels" - would imply they now see sufficient incentive, tightening supply relief; (c) TerraPower's Kemmerer Unit 1 commercial-operation date slipping past 2030 - would be the leading indicator for SMR delays broadly; (d) Hyperscaler PPA renegotiations (Microsoft/Constellation Crane or Amazon/Talen Susquehanna terms modified down) - would indicate AI-pow