August 4, 2026 · Decision research
Insurance Reinsurance Cycles
Finding
The weakest assumption was that one market-cycle label could guide every insurance and reinsurance decision. Current evidence confirms real, capital-supported softening in property catastrophe, but not a universal soft market: casualty remains loss-experience-sensitive and underlying catastrophe and liability risks remain elevated.
What changed
June and July 2026 renewals delivered double-digit property-catastrophe price reductions, better terms, and abundant capacity, while global reinsurance demand rose by more than 10% as buyers sought additional top-of-program protection.
Decision
YES - change the action now, but narrowly: use the property-catastrophe window to improve protection and structure, preserve casualty discipline and elevated retentions, and do not convert cheaper capacity into undisciplined growth.
Watch next
The decision reverses if property-catastrophe pricing turns higher across renewals, capital supply contracts, casualty terms broadly loosen, or catastrophe and reserve losses move outside modeled expectations.