August 14, 2026 · Decision research
What Are We Missing
Finding
The fiscal and term-premium risk is real, but the weakest link - an already broad, supply-constrained capex regime with immediate funding stress - is not confirmed.
What changed
August official data show Treasury maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for several quarters, a 4.68% 10-year and 5.24% 30-year yield on August 12, and manufacturing capacity utilization 2.7 percentage points below its long-run average.
Decision
Do not change the current posture now: keep a modest long-end trim or defined-risk hedge, but do not escalate to an outright duration exit or a large additional hedge.
Watch next
Use the next long-coupon auctions, term premium, repo versus IORB, reserve and money-fund flows, and capacity utilization as the trigger set; require confirmation across at least two channels before changing size.