August 20, 2026 · Decision research
Uranium Nuclear Renaissance
Finding
The weakest assumption is not that new nuclear plants can arrive before AI load; it is that nuclear's near-term physical limits make it irrelevant to near-term power decisions. That is too strong, but only at the margin.
What changed
DOE now targets 2.5 GW of additional nuclear capacity by 2027 and 5 GW by 2029, while Crane is a planned 835 MW restart expected online in 2028 and Palisades had initial fuel loading scheduled for September 2026.
Decision
Do not rotate the core 2026-2028 AI-power thesis into nuclear or uranium today. Change the action from binary dismissal to a small, milestone-gated watch or optional position in restarts, uprates, and fuel contracting.
Watch next
Treat commercial generation, not announcements, as the trigger: Palisades fuel loading and NRC authorization, Crane interconnection and startup, UPRISE units reaching operation, and FERC-approved flexible-load tariffs.