Dedollarization Brics

Finding

The weakest assumption is treating reserve-share direction and one month of long-term US-security purchases as sufficient proxies for official reserve demand and for BRICS payment substitution. The granular evidence does not support that shortcut: June showed strong long-term buying, but the broader TIC balance, investor mix, and short-term dollar flows were less one-sided.

What changed

The June TIC release shows $207.1 billion of long-term US-security purchases, but only $133.5 billion of total net TIC inflow after short-term securities and banking flows. Private and official behavior also diverged materially.

Decision

Change the action from open-ended "consider a dedollarization response" to "monitor and prepare." Do not make a tactical USD exit, hedge, or allocation change now; keep a trigger-based contingency plan.

Watch next

The decision changes if BRICS moves from declarations to independently reported transaction volume and repeat settlement corridors, while dollar funding and reserve allocation weaken together. The current BRICS declaration still describes continued discussion and the potential for greater interoperability.

Sources

• bis.org
• imf.org
• bis.org
• home.treasury.gov
• swift.com
• safe.gov.cn
• ecb.europa.eu
• home.treasury.gov
• bis.org
• brics2026.gov.in