September 17, 2026 · Decision research
Dedollarization Brics
Finding
The weakest assumption is not that the dollar is safe; it is that reserve shares alone reveal whether dedollarization is happening. They do not. Gold accumulation and stated intentions show a real diversification impulse, but current transaction and market infrastructure data do not show BRICS replacing the dollar at system scale.
What changed
The evidence is now two-sided. Central banks are buying gold and many expect to reduce dollar holdings, while the renminbi remains a small share of global payments and the dollar's role in foreign-exchange trading has strengthened rather than weakened in the latest BIS survey.
Decision
Do not change the action now. Do not position for a dollar-break or treat BRICS headlines as an investable displacement signal. Change the monitoring rule: track reserve flows, settlement volumes, and market liquidity separately, and escalate only when all three move together.
Watch next
The decisive evidence would be repeated valuation-adjusted dollar outflows, published BRICS trade-settlement volumes that are large and persistent, and a measurable rise in non-dollar funding and hedging liquidity rather than only political agreements.