October 5, 2026 · Decision research
Currency Regime FX
Finding
The weakest assumption is that a stronger dollar and higher U.S. bond yields prove durable foreign demand for U.S. government debt. The latest official investment-flow data do not establish that.
What changed
In July, private foreign investors sold a net $29.1 billion of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, while foreign official institutions bought $25.5 billion; foreign holdings of short-term Treasury bills increased $38.8 billion.
Decision
Keep the currency-regime idea at **consider**, but do not increase conviction or initiate a position solely because the dollar rose. Separate a possible short-term dollar opportunity from an unproved long-term safe-haven thesis.
Watch next
The August foreign-investment report is scheduled for **October 16**. Check whether private buyers return to Treasury notes and bonds, not merely to short-term bills.