October 6, 2026 · Decision research
AI Infra Capex
Finding
The weakest assumption is that signed demand for AI computing will become profitable, repeatable customer use quickly enough to pay for the equipment and financing. The evidence does not yet prove that.
What changed
Oracle's latest quarter provides a sharper test: its contracted work rose, but building capacity still consumed more cash than operations supplied, and it issued nearly $20 billion of stock.
Decision
Keep the action at **consider**. Do not upgrade to a broad investment commitment or declare a spending bust. Be more selective about companies that must finance construction before customers use the capacity.
Watch next
Revenue earned from delivered computing, cash remaining after equipment purchases, financing needs, and the gap between power requested and power actually available.