October 10, 2026 · Decision research
Critical Minerals Supply
Finding
Change the action now, but not because a shutdown on November 10 is certain. The weaker assumption is that the legal deadline, rather than deliveries under rules already in force, tells us when a factory will run short.
What changed
The latest evidence points in two directions: magnet exports have recovered overall, while some U.S. buyers still face sharply reduced supplies of particular materials and even withheld licensed shipments.
Decision
Buyers of critical magnets should secure delivery commitments, check material-specific inventory, and qualify alternative suppliers now. Do not treat a license, a factory's planned capacity, or an approaching deadline as proof of either delivery or a universal shortage.
Watch next
Actual deliveries of dysprosium, terbium, yttrium and finished magnets; supplier willingness to ship against approved licenses; customers' inventory coverage; and any new Chinese notice changing the suspended rules.