Sovs Macro

A Sovereign Signal project

Accountability

A public record of calls and outcomes. Forecast accuracy includes only eligible calls recorded before their outcome. Historical conditions and ambiguous tests remain visible for review and are excluded from that score.

Performance active

54 markets have settled.

Hit or miss is taken from the source result, not from a person.

All entries
257
Listed markets
208
Settled
54
Still open
143
Not scored
49

How the record works

01

Record

The pipeline saves the call, the source, and the due date.

02

Settle

The market or official print closes. There is no decide button.

03

Score

Hits and misses only. Accuracy waits until eight markets have settled.

Performance by track

Each track shows an accuracy rate after 8 decisions. Counts appear immediately.

Smart-money markets

Polymarket sides backed by tracked wallets.

64%

accuracy

7 correct 4 incorrect

135 pending, 10 excluded

87% opening probability, -24 pts vs market

Map-derived checks

Dated conditions from the daily Next check lines and the reaction rules behind each Forward Event Checkpoint, settled on stored daily closes, plus market leans cited in the weekly map.

84%

accuracy

36 correct 7 incorrect

8 pending, 1 excluded

95% opening probability, 2 priced decisions

Decided claims by theme

Decided claims by evidence type

Upcoming settlements

Next dated settlement: October 14, 2026. Only listed markets appear here.

October 2026: 17 open claims17OCT’26November 2026: 1 open claim1NOVDecember 2026: 94 open claims94DECJanuary 2027: 0 open claimsJAN’27February 2027: 0 open claimsFEBMarch 2027: 0 open claimsMARApril 2027: 0 open claimsAPRMay 2027: 0 open claimsMAYJune 2027: 0 open claimsJUNJuly 2027: 0 open claimsJULAugust 2027: 0 open claimsAUGSeptember 2027: 0 open claimsSEPNo due date: 31 open claims31OPEN
Pending eligible claims by decision month.

Qualitative map review

49 map conditions have no market that can settle them. They stay off the scorecard.

Claim history

Listed markets, oldest first.

awaiting outcome 143correct 43incorrect 11mixed result 0no verdict 1qualitative review 0excluded 10

Wallet signals 156

At resolution, "Iran Nuke before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-05, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-05, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-05, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-05, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-05, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: correct, opened 2026-07-06, resolved 2026-10-03At resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-06, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-06, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-06, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-07, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "China x Japan military clash before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-07, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-07, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-07, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-08, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-08, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Iran nuclear test before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-09, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: incorrect, opened 2026-07-10, resolved 2026-10-03At resolution, "China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-10, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Fed rate hike in 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: incorrect, opened 2026-07-10, resolved 2026-10-03At resolution, "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-10, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-10, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-10, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-10, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-10, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-10, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-11, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-15, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-15, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-15, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-15, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-17, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-17, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-18, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-19, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-20, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-21, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-21, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-21, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-22, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-22, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-22, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-22, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-22, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: correct, opened 2026-07-22, resolved 2026-10-05At resolution, "Will Solana reach $220 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-22, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-22, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-23, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Trump out as President before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-23, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-23, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-24, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-24, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-24, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-24, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-24, open-endedAt resolution, "Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: correct, opened 2026-07-25, resolved 2026-10-03At resolution, "Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-25, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-25, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: incorrect, opened 2026-07-26, resolved 2026-10-03At resolution, "Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: incorrect, opened 2026-07-26, resolved 2026-10-03At resolution, "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-27, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-29, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: excluded, opened 2026-07-29, resolved 2026-09-02At resolution, "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-07-30, open-endedAt resolution, "Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: excluded, opened 2026-08-01, resolved 2026-09-02At resolution, "Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: excluded, opened 2026-08-01, resolved 2026-09-02At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-02, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: excluded, opened 2026-08-02, resolved 2026-09-02At resolution, "Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-03, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: excluded, opened 2026-08-03, resolved 2026-09-02At resolution, "Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: excluded, opened 2026-08-05, resolved 2026-09-02At resolution, "Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: excluded, opened 2026-08-06, resolved 2026-09-02At resolution, "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-09, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-09, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: excluded, opened 2026-08-12, resolved 2026-09-02At resolution, "Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-12, open-endedAt resolution, "Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-14, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-15, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-19, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "US recession by end of 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-21, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-22, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: excluded, opened 2026-08-25, resolved 2026-09-02At resolution, "Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-27, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: correct, opened 2026-08-29, resolved 2026-10-05At resolution, "Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-31, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: excluded, opened 2026-08-31, resolved 2026-09-02At resolution, "Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-31, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-08-31, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: correct, opened 2026-09-02, resolved 2026-10-03At resolution, "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-09-13, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-09-14, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-02, open-endedAt resolution, "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-02, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: correct, opened 2026-10-02, resolved 2026-10-05At resolution, "Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-02, open-endedAt resolution, "Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-05, open-endedAt resolution, "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-10-31At resolution, "Iran leadership change by October 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-10-31At resolution, "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-10-31At resolution, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-10-31At resolution, "US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-10-15At resolution, "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-10-31At resolution, "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-10-31At resolution, "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: correct, opened 2026-10-11, resolved 2026-10-13At resolution, "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-11, open-endedAt resolution, "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-10-31At resolution, "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-10-31At resolution, "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "US x China Military clash before 2027?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-13, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-13, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-13, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-13, open-endedAt resolution, "Iran leadership change by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-14, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Iran leadership change by November 30?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-14, expires 2026-11-30At resolution, "Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-14, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-14, open-endedAt resolution, "Will Solana reach $240 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-14, expires 2026-12-31At resolution, "Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-14, expires 2026-12-31

Map calls 52

At resolution, "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?" settles NO, matching the map's recorded lean.: no verdict, opened 2026-07-04, resolved 2026-10-03At resolution, "US x China tariff agreement by December 31?" settles YES, matching the map's recorded lean.: correct, opened 2026-07-04, resolved 2026-10-03At resolution, "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?" settles NO, matching the map's recorded lean.: correct, opened 2026-07-11, resolved 2026-10-0330Y Yield closes above 5.20% on 2026-08-14 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-08-13, resolved 2026-08-1430Y Yield closes above 5.25% on 2026-08-26 (settled by stored daily closes).: incorrect, opened 2026-08-18, resolved 2026-08-26Bitcoin (BTC) closes above 70,000.00 on 2026-08-26 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-08-20, resolved 2026-08-26Dollar Index (DXY) closes below 99.00 on 2026-08-26 (settled by stored daily closes).: incorrect, opened 2026-08-20, resolved 2026-08-26Bitcoin (BTC) closes above 75,000.00 on 2026-08-26 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-08-24, resolved 2026-08-26Copper closes above 6.76 on 2026-09-01 (settled by stored daily closes).: incorrect, opened 2026-08-26, resolved 2026-09-012Y Yield closes above 4.20% on 2026-09-04 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-08-26, resolved 2026-09-0430Y Yield closes below 5.25% on 2026-09-04 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-08-27, resolved 2026-09-042Y Yield closes above 4.30% on 2026-09-04 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-01, resolved 2026-09-042Y Yield closes above 4.25% on 2026-09-11 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-02, resolved 2026-09-11WTI Crude closes above 88.00 on 2026-09-09 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-02, resolved 2026-09-092Y Yield closes above 4.30% on 2026-09-11 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-04, resolved 2026-09-11VIX closes below 16.00 on 2026-09-11 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-04, resolved 2026-09-11Gold (GLD) closes above 400.00 on 2026-09-11 (settled by stored daily closes).: incorrect, opened 2026-09-07, resolved 2026-09-11Brent Crude closes above 95.00 on 2026-09-14 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-07, resolved 2026-09-14Dollar Index (DXY) closes below 99.00 on 2026-09-11 (settled by stored daily closes).: incorrect, opened 2026-09-07, resolved 2026-09-11Brent Crude closes above 95.00 on 2026-09-16 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-08, resolved 2026-09-16VIX closes below 20.00 on 2026-09-16 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-08, resolved 2026-09-16Brent Crude closes above 100.00 on 2026-09-16 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-09, resolved 2026-09-1610Y Yield closes above 4.70% on 2026-09-16 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-10, resolved 2026-09-16Bitcoin (BTC) closes above 75,000.00 on 2026-09-16 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-10, resolved 2026-09-162Y Yield closes above 4.40% on 2026-09-18 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-11, resolved 2026-09-18Brent Crude closes above 100.00 on 2026-09-18 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-11, resolved 2026-09-182Y Yield closes above 4.30% on 2026-09-18 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-14, resolved 2026-09-18VIX closes below 20.00 on 2026-09-18 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-14, resolved 2026-09-18Gold (GLD) closes above 385.00 on 2026-09-25 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-15, resolved 2026-09-252Y Yield closes above 4.50% on 2026-09-25 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-15, resolved 2026-09-25S&P 500 (SPY) closes above 745.00 on 2026-09-23 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-16, resolved 2026-09-23Gold (GLD) closes above 390.00 on 2026-09-23 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-16, resolved 2026-09-232Y Yield closes above 4.50% on 2026-09-23 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-16, resolved 2026-09-232s10s Spread closes below 0.40% on 2026-09-30 (settled by stored daily closes).: incorrect, opened 2026-09-17, resolved 2026-09-30Gold (GLD) closes below 390.00 on 2026-09-30 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-28, resolved 2026-09-30HY Spread (OAS) closes above 2.90% on 2026-09-30 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-28, resolved 2026-09-3030Y Yield closes above 5.40% on 2026-10-03 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-09-29, resolved 2026-10-02HY Spread (OAS) closes above 2.95% on 2026-10-03 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-10-01, resolved 2026-10-0230Y Yield closes above 5.50% on 2026-10-03 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-10-01, resolved 2026-10-0230Y Yield closes below 5.60% on 2026-10-08 (settled by stored daily closes).: incorrect, opened 2026-10-02, resolved 2026-10-08HY Spread (OAS) closes above 3.00% on 2026-10-08 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-10-02, resolved 2026-10-08Brent Crude closes below 105.00 on 2026-10-08 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-10-02, resolved 2026-10-0810Y Yield closes below 5.35% on 2026-10-09 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-10-05, resolved 2026-10-09Dollar Index (DXY) closes above 101.50 on 2026-10-09 (settled by stored daily closes).: correct, opened 2026-10-05, resolved 2026-10-09Brent Crude closes below 105.00 on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes).: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-07, expires 2026-10-14Bitcoin (BTC) closes above 80,000.00 on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes).: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-07, expires 2026-10-142Y Yield closes below 4.85% on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes).: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-07, expires 2026-10-14Brent Crude closes above 100.00 on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes).: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-08, expires 2026-10-1410Y Yield closes below 5.35% on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes).: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-08, expires 2026-10-1410Y Yield closes below 5.30% on 2026-10-16 (settled by stored daily closes).: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-09, expires 2026-10-16WTI Crude closes below 95.00 on 2026-10-16 (settled by stored daily closes).: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-09, expires 2026-10-16Brent Crude closes above 105.00 on 2026-10-16 (settled by stored daily closes).: awaiting outcome, opened 2026-10-12, expires 2026-10-16

Public ledger

Filters only affect this ledger.

OpenedClaim / sourceTrackThemesEvidenceExpectedStateVerified result
October 11, 2026At resolution, "US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Opening probability: 59%smart-money marketIran / Hormuz / Oilnarrative drivenNo due dateawaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Opening probability: 97%smart-money marketIran / Hormuz / Oilnarrative drivenOctober 31, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Opening probability: 80%smart-money marketUnmappednarrative drivenOctober 31, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Opening probability: 90%smart-money marketUnmappednarrative drivenOctober 15, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Opening probability: 64%smart-money marketUnmappednarrative drivenDecember 31, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Opening probability: 94%smart-money marketIran / Hormuz / Oildata anchoredOctober 31, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Opening probability: 68%smart-money marketIran / Hormuz / Oildata anchoredDecember 31, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Opening probability: 98%smart-money marketUnmappednarrative drivenOctober 31, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Opening probability: 83%smart-money marketIran / Hormuz / Oilnarrative drivenNo due dateawaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Opening probability: 95%smart-money marketIran / Hormuz / Oilnarrative drivenNo due dateawaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?" settles YES, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Opening probability: 66%smart-money marketIran / Hormuz / Oilnarrative drivenNo due dateawaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "Iran leadership change by October 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: Iran leadership change by October 31?Opening probability: 96%smart-money marketIran / Hormuz / Oilnarrative drivenOctober 31, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Opening probability: 93%smart-money marketRed Sea / Bab al-Mandab export chokepointdata anchoredOctober 31, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 11, 2026At resolution, "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Opening probability: 83%smart-money marketRed Sea / Bab al-Mandab export chokepointdata anchoredDecember 31, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 9, 2026WTI Crude closes below 95.00 on 2026-10-16 (settled by stored daily closes).Source: WTI Crude close on 2026-10-16map-derived marketIran / Hormuz / Oildata anchoredOctober 16, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 9, 202610Y Yield closes below 5.30% on 2026-10-16 (settled by stored daily closes).Source: 10Y Yield close on 2026-10-16map-derived marketFed / Inflation / Ratesdata anchoredOctober 16, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 8, 202610Y Yield closes below 5.35% on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes).Source: 10Y Yield close on 2026-10-14map-derived marketFed / Inflation / Ratesdata anchoredOctober 14, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 8, 2026Brent Crude closes above 100.00 on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes).Source: Brent Crude close on 2026-10-14map-derived marketIran / Hormuz / Oildata anchoredOctober 14, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 7, 20262Y Yield closes below 4.85% on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes).Source: 2Y Yield close on 2026-10-14map-derived marketFed / Inflation / Ratesdata anchoredOctober 14, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 7, 2026Bitcoin (BTC) closes above 80,000.00 on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes).Source: Bitcoin (BTC) close on 2026-10-14map-derived marketCrypto / BTCdata anchoredOctober 14, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 7, 2026Brent Crude closes below 105.00 on 2026-10-14 (settled by stored daily closes).Source: Brent Crude close on 2026-10-14map-derived marketIran / Hormuz / Oildata anchoredOctober 14, 2026awaiting outcomePending result.
October 6, 20263-Year Note Auction 2026-10-06 printed hot versus the prior same-term auctions; the map said S&P 500 (SPY) down on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes).Source: S&P 500 (SPY) release-day move, 2026-10-06historical condition; excluded from forecast accuracyCredit / Private Markets, Cross-Asset Crowded Calm, Crypto / BTC, Narrative Rotation / Rolling Bubbles, Official Currency Defense / Yen-Funded Leveragenot classifiedOctober 6, 2026Excluded from forecast scoreOctober 6, 2026S&P 500 (SPY) moved +0.55% on 2026-10-06 (stored daily closes); the map said down.
October 6, 20263-Year Note Auction 2026-10-06 printed hot versus the prior same-term auctions; the map said 10Y Yield up on the day (settled on the release-day move in stored daily closes).Source: 10Y Yield release-day move, 2026-10-06historical condition; excluded from forecast accuracyCross-Asset Crowded Calm, Crypto / BTC, Fed / Inflation / Rates, Gold / Miners / Real Assets, Housing / Residential Construction, Narrative Rotation / Rolling Bubbles, Real-Asset Split: Monetary Versus Physical Demandnot classifiedOctober 6, 2026Excluded from forecast scoreOctober 6, 202610Y Yield moved -4bp on 2026-10-06 (stored daily closes); the map said up.
October 5, 2026At resolution, "Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?" settles NO, the side backed by tracked high-scoring wallets.Source: Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?Opening probability: 94%smart-money marketUnmappedproceduralNo due dateawaiting outcomePending result.
October 5, 2026Dollar Index (DXY) closes above 101.50 on 2026-10-09 (settled by stored daily closes).Source: Dollar Index (DXY) close on 2026-10-09map-derived marketEuropean Industrial Cost Compressiondata anchoredOctober 9, 2026correctOctober 9, 2026Verified: Dollar Index (DXY) closed 102.21 on 2026-10-09 (stored daily closes); the check was Dollar Index (DXY) closes above 101.50 on 2026-10-09.